Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:07:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd62d…ce44 other 134 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate10%13W / 121L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$136
politics 28% −$8
sports 14% +$8
tech 5% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
economics 1% −$169
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 88 -0.9% -10.3% 2% 1% -9.7%
all 134 +0.0% -9.5% 10% 8% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 8% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 7% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 4% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$2 · ×8.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses13 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)134 / 134
History coverage132d
Avg bet$195
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 134 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $184 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $508 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $368 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 16 $184 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $167 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $129 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $152 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $838 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $186 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $152 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $160 $0 -0%
Will Jan-Lennard Struff win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 03 $140 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $186 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $293 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $136 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $454 +$148 +33%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 30 $169 −$169 -100%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $177 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $184 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $190 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $176 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $150 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $175 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $135 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $171 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $183 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $181 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $159 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $180 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 22 $189 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $188 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $180 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $533 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $876 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $344 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $302 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $136 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $167 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $319 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $146 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 17 $178 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $143 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 16 $133 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $180 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $184 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $186 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $186 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $179 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $314 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $28 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $28 27h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $183 45h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $184 11d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $177 27d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $177 31d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $175 31d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $175 34d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $184 35d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $184 42d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $167 44d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $167 45d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $129 45d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $129 45d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $152 45d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $152 46d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $129 46d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $129 47d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $186 47d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $186 47d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $152 47d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $152 48d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $181 48d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $181 49d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $160 49d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $160 49d
Will Jan-Lennard Struff win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $140 49d
Will Jan-Lennard Struff win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $140 50d
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $186 50d
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $186 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 402 history records