Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:15:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D6 0xd62e…f865 other 83 markets active 2h ago coverage 610d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$61 (+0%) realized +$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate26%21W / 61L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$244per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$7
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$13
other 14% +$45
politics 10% −$7
sports 4% +$34
tech 2% $0
economics 1% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -5.1% -14.1% 15% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 62 -11.0% -19.4% 19% 8% -11.2%
all 82 -1.4% -10.8% 26% 12% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 12% -9.3%
10% -19.3% 12% -17.9%
15% -27.1% 12% -25.9%
20% -34.2% 12% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$3 · ×3.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

610d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized+$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses21 / 61
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)82 / 83
History coverage610d
Avg bet$244
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $98 $98 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 19 $32 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $104 $0 +0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $31 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $27 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $22 $0 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 12 $67 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $32 $0 -0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $30 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $36 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $35 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $27 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $200 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in May? Jun 02 $89 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $19 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $53 $0 +0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $26 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $28 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $27 $0 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals May 18 $6 +$7 +124%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 11 $144 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $147 $0 -0%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 07 $156 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $150 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 3? May 06 $69 $0 +0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $156 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 26 $146 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 25 $155 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $298 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 25 $142 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 24 $152 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 23 $142 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $159 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $154 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $154 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $149 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $151 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $150 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $144 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $145 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 15 $147 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $286 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $144 $0 -0%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $13 −$13 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $11 +$7 +62%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $98 1h
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $32 4h
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $32 5h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 29h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 29h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 2d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 3d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 4d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $104 5d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 6d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 6d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $34 7d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $34 8d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $32 8d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $32 8d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 9d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 9d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 47¢ $7 10d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 10d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 11d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 13d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 13d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $35 15d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $35 15d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $27 16d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $27 16d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $21 17d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $21 17d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $19 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.35 · official $98.35 (match) · 308 history records