Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:29:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd633…de5d other 244 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$76 (-0%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 231L
Whale WR4%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$242per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$13
14 days−$27
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$37
sports 26% −$25
politics 7% −$6
culture 7% −$7
crypto 6% −$6
economics 4% −$4
world 3% −$2
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.1% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 69 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 173 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 244 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 77% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 4% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 231
Whale WR (big bets)4%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)244 / 244
History coverage140d
Avg bet$242
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 244 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $364 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $565 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $163 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $569 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $466 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $562 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $738 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $211 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $221 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $695 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $674 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $533 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $640 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $220 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $209 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $821 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $179 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $543 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $221 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $65 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $450 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $385 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $436 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $450 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 10 $593 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $148 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $331 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $67 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $224 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $140 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $432 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $271 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $322 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $68 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $441 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $378 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $576 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $191 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $247 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $70 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $661 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $329 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 04 $693 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $394 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $319 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $178 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $499 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $62 1h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $62 2h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $62 3h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $62 5h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $62 7h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $62 10h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $62 10h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $62 12h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $62 13h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $62 14h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $62 20h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 22h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $62 23h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $62 25h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $63 28h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $63 29h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $63 35h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $63 37h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $63 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $63 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $63 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $63 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $63 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $63 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $63 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1426 history records