Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:51:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd637…1017 other 40 markets active 3h ago coverage 599d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$29,864 (-56%) realized −$29,572 · open −$292
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate43%15W / 20L
Whale WR22%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,344per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$1,712now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 62% −$17,827
other 17% −$1,836
world 14% −$7,663
sports 7% −$2,644
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 35 -20.1% -27.7% 43% 31% -61.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.7% 31% -61.4%
10% -34.6% 20% -65.1%
15% -40.9% 14% -68.5%
20% -46.7% 11% -71.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 22% (≥$827) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -29% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
36.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$511 vs −$1,867 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

599d coverage
Net worth$1,712
Realized−$29,572
Unrealized−$292
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses15 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)22%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)35 / 40
History coverage599d
Avg bet$1,344
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $775 $768 −$7 (-1%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $500 $464 −$36 (-7%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $500 $438 −$62 (-12%)
Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes 11¢ 2¢ $219 $41 −$178 (-81%)
Will Amanda Lind be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 04 $7,634 −$7,634 -100%
Men's Final - Canada vs. USA Feb 22 $2,615 −$2,615 -100%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Feb 22 $100 −$41 -41%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Feb 22 $200 +$57 +29%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 22 $300 −$54 -18%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Feb 22 $600 −$324 -54%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Feb 22 $1,000 −$699 -70%
Will Christian Estrosi win the 2026 Nice mayoral election? Feb 22 $500 +$52 +10%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Feb 22 $827 −$82 -10%
Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legis Feb 08 $6,662 +$5,692 +85%
Will Jean-Marc Governatori win the 2026 Nice mayoral election? Jan 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Juliette Chesnel-Leroux win the 2026 Nice mayoral election? Jan 25 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? Jan 24 $547 +$76 +14%
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 23 $2,638 +$626 +24%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 19 $174 +$79 +46%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 19 $513 +$69 +13%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 19 $153 +$224 +147%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 19 $64 +$6 +10%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 19 $85 +$4 +5%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 19 $18 +$4 +20%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 19 $113 +$22 +20%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 19 $100 +$57 +57%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 19 $353 −$164 -46%
Will $TRUMP hit $25B FDV by Sunday? Jan 19 $983 −$983 -100%
Will the Calgary Flames win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 18 $302 −$164 -54%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 18 $56 −$4 -7%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 18 $75 +$8 +10%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 18 $188 −$138 -73%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 18 $70 −$21 -30%
Will the Utah Hockey Club win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 18 $100 −$60 -60%
Will the Broncos win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 18 $69 −$69 -100%
Will the Steelers win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 18 $224 −$224 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? Dec 06 $2,700 −$2,700 -100%
Will $HAWK FDV be $30,000,000 or more one day after launch? Dec 06 $396 +$681 +172%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 09 $21,269 −$21,269 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $797 2h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $515 2h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $515 2h
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY No 18¢ $7,634 75d
Men's Final - Canada vs. USA BUY Canada 54¢ $179 116d
Men's Final - Canada vs. USA BUY Canada 54¢ $2,436 116d
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 3¢ $59 116d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 47¢ $257 116d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL Yes 4¢ $246 116d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 14¢ $276 116d
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? SELL Yes 10¢ $301 116d
Will Christian Estrosi win the 2026 Nice mayoral election? SELL No 41¢ $552 116d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 37¢ $745 116d
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? BUY Yes 35¢ $100 128d
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? BUY Yes 34¢ $200 128d
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? BUY Yes 33¢ $300 128d
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? BUY Yes 32¢ $400 128d
Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legis SELL Yes 81¢ $811 129d
Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legis SELL Yes 81¢ $405 129d
Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legis SELL Yes 80¢ $400 129d
Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legis SELL Yes 83¢ $830 129d
Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legis SELL Yes 83¢ $830 129d
Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legis SELL Yes 81¢ $810 129d
Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legis SELL Yes 73¢ $365 129d
Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legis SELL Yes 71¢ $353 129d
Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legis SELL Yes 66¢ $332 129d
Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legis SELL Yes 57¢ $283 129d
Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legis SELL Yes 56¢ $280 129d
Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legis SELL Yes 62¢ $620 129d
Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legis SELL Yes 63¢ $635 129d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,712.38 · official $1,712.38 (match) · 1535 history records