Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:48:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd63a…90a6 finance 331 markets active 1h ago coverage 376d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$325 (-3%) realized −$325 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate69%227W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$27
14 days−$169
30 days−$387
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 41% −$152
weather 25% −$193
finance 16% −$71
other 12% +$42
politics 6% +$8
world 1% +$22
crypto 0% −$5
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -9.7% -18.3% 79% 5% -12.9%
≤30d 78 -16.4% -24.4% 74% 17% -16.5%
≤90d 182 -26.7% -33.7% 58% 16% -14.4%
all 329 -9.6% -18.2% 69% 35% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 35% -12.1%
10% -26.0% 14% -20.5%
15% -33.2% 8% -28.2%
20% -39.7% 5% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$13 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

376d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$325
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses227 / 102
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)329 / 331
History coverage376d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 329 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $96 $98 +$2 (+2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 33¢ 25¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $23 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $23 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $29 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $67 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $17 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $24 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $88 +$8 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $66 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $42 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 +$5 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $59 −$59 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $110 +$7 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $15 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $85 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $101 +$26 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $88 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $48 −$48 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $49 +$6 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $124 +$9 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $72 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 5? Jun 05 $9 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $44 +$6 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $0 $0 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $21 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 4? Jun 04 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $420 on June 4? Jun 04 $33 +$3 +8%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $440 on June 4? Jun 04 $5 $0 +4%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $430 on June 4? Jun 04 $12 −$12 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 4? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $90 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 3? Jun 03 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 3? Jun 03 $69 −$23 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 3? Jun 03 $123 −$122 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 3? Jun 03 $31 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 3? Jun 03 $52 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 3? Jun 03 $63 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 3? Jun 03 $105 −$102 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $48 +$14 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 2? Jun 02 $63 +$7 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 2? Jun 02 $163 +$13 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $39 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 97¢ $8 21h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 26h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 96¢ $8 27h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 96¢ $8 27h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 96¢ $8 27h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 95¢ $6 28h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 95¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 95¢ $5 28h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 95¢ $5 28h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 95¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 95¢ $5 28h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 95¢ $5 28h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 95¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 96¢ $13 29h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 29h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 95¢ $29 29h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 96¢ $48 29h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 95¢ $4 45h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 95¢ $15 45h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 96¢ $48 45h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 2d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 97¢ $17 2d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 95¢ $24 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? SELL Yes 95¢ $55 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.43 · official $101.43 (match) · 900 history records