Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:39:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd63c…681f crypto 581 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$365 (-2%) realized −$360 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%290W / 290L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$143now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$284
14 days−$286
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$831
politics 4% −$206
other 1% −$5
world 0% −$43
culture 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 51 -39.0% -44.8% 31% 29% -10.6%
≤90d 241 -21.1% -28.7% 40% 37% -14.9%
all 580 -10.1% -18.6% 50% 47% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 47% -14.3%
10% -26.4% 40% -22.5%
15% -33.5% 31% -30.0%
20% -40.1% 22% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$25 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$143
Realized−$360
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses290 / 290
Open positions1
Markets (closed)580 / 581
History coverage117d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 580 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $148 $143 −$5 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $234 −$234 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 9? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 4PM ET Jun 03 $119 −$119 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 03 $109 −$109 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 02 $16 −$6 -36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 6? Jun 02 $21 −$9 -44%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? Jun 02 $21 −$12 -58%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 02 $16 −$3 -17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 02 $21 −$3 -16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $52 −$5 -9%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 02 $16 −$3 -21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 02 $61 −$61 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 01 $190 +$377 +198%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6PM ET May 31 $157 +$99 +63%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 4PM ET May 31 $155 +$85 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 31 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 31 $51 −$51 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 30 $72 +$36 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET May 30 $163 +$80 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2AM ET May 30 $73 +$46 +63%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 28 $31 −$31 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 28 $13 −$8 -62%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 3PM ET May 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 1AM ET May 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 28 $187 +$68 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3AM ET May 28 $52 +$22 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 26 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3PM ET May 25 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12PM ET May 25 $63 +$27 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET May 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10PM ET May 25 $342 −$342 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12AM ET May 25 $259 +$162 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11PM ET May 25 $188 +$82 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET May 25 $42 +$36 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET May 25 $52 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET May 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 25 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11PM ET May 24 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1AM ET May 24 $182 +$238 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET May 24 $358 +$25 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12AM ET May 24 $287 +$70 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $150 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $50 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $21 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $32 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $11 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $11 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $30 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $0 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $16 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $42 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $21 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $42 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 9? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 9? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 15d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $15 15d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $25 15d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 15d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 15d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $0 15d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $19 15d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $0 15d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $21 15d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.04 · official $143.04 (match) · 1918 history records