Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:35:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D6 0xd63e…fc98 tech 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$140 (-27%) realized −$140 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%2W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$32
tech 33% −$96
culture 12% −$19
other 10% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-57.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +25.5% +13.5% 100% 100% +13.5%
≤30d 1 +25.5% +13.5% 100% 100% +13.5%
≤90d 7 -61.0% -64.7% 14% 14% -61.6%
all 11 -52.6% -57.1% 18% 18% -55.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.1% 18% -55.0%
10% -61.2% 18% -59.3%
15% -64.9% 9% -63.2%
20% -68.4% 9% -66.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$20 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$140
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses2 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage146d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $49 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 17 $39 +$10 +26%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -99%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? Apr 08 $10 −$9 -88%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX? Apr 08 $2 −$1 -29%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? Apr 08 $110 −$86 -78%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Mar 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Mar 24 $210 −$23 -11%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $25 +$19 +75%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? Mar 02 $14 −$4 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $49 1h
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? BUY Yes 80¢ $39 70d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR? SELL Yes $0 70d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? SELL Yes $1 70d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX? SELL Yes $1 70d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? SELL Yes 13¢ $24 70d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? BUY Yes 50¢ $55 76d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX? BUY Yes $2 77d
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 85d
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 85d
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 93d
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes $5 95d
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 95d
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 33¢ $33 95d
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 74¢ $80 106d
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $86 106d
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 106d
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? SELL No 37¢ $47 106d
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? BUY No 31¢ $40 107d
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 68¢ $68 107d
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? SELL No 19¢ $10 107d
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 68¢ $68 107d
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $14 107d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? BUY Yes 75¢ $55 134d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 145d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? BUY Yes $10 146d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.22 · official $48.22 (match) · 28 history records