Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:13:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd640…f05b politics 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%2W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 57% −$1
other 24% $0
economics 10% −$1
world 9% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 20 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses2 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage121d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $103 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 18 $103 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 12 $104 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $104 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $208 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $104 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $104 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $104 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $105 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $105 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 05 $106 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 31 $106 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Mar 21 $106 $0 +0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 20 $106 −$1 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election Mar 16 $106 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 13 $106 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 12 $106 $0 +0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $106 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 03 $106 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 01 $106 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $103 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $103 14h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $103 10d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $103 10d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $103 17d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $104 17d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $104 27d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $104 28d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $104 32d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $104 33d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $104 41d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $104 41d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $104 43d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 44d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $67 44d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 44d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $104 49d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $104 50d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $104 55d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $104 55d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $105 72d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $105 72d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $105 77d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $105 77d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 99¢ $105 84d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $106 84d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $106 89d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $106 90d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $106 99d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $106 100d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 62 history records