Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T03:21:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D6
0xd640…480c
world · 429 markets active 3h ago
1.5score
+$1,047 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$15,396 · open −$14,414
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$75,044
Realized+$15,396
Unrealized−$14,414
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses158 / 227
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions54
Markets (closed)385 / 429
History coverage98d
Avg bet$458
Trades / day33.0
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 54 History 385 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$86
7 days+$7,039
14 days+$16,166
30 days+$15,933
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 94¢ 76¢ $82,044 $66,446 −$15,598 (-19%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 56¢ 87¢ $3,000 $4,682 +$1,682 (+56%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? No 81¢ 50¢ $704 $439 −$264 (-38%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 71¢ 74¢ $416 $431 +$15 (+4%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 62¢ 99¢ $225 $359 +$133 (+59%)
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? No 40¢ 23¢ $471 $274 −$198 (-42%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 50¢ 52¢ $228 $239 +$11 (+5%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $214 $215 +$1 (+1%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 85¢ 98¢ $171 $197 +$26 (+16%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No 80¢ 80¢ $195 $196 +$1 (+0%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 81¢ 80¢ $179 $178 −$1 (-1%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 13¢ 20¢ $115 $173 +$58 (+50%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 92¢ 98¢ $135 $144 +$9 (+6%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $121 $125 +$4 (+4%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 78¢ 92¢ $98 $117 +$18 (+19%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 90¢ 98¢ $105 $114 +$9 (+9%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $110 $111 +$0 (+0%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $77 $100 +$23 (+30%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 80¢ 94¢ $69 $81 +$12 (+17%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No 67¢ 26¢ $187 $71 −$116 (-62%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? No 41¢ 13¢ $203 $64 −$139 (-68%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No 94¢ 97¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+4%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 66¢ 94¢ $43 $61 +$18 (+42%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 93¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? Yes 25¢ 36¢ $23 $32 +$10 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $90 +$86 +96%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $75 −$72 -96%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $192 −$192 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 08 $1,559 −$202 -13%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $1,216 −$1,209 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 08 $533 +$83 +16%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $215 +$5,956 +2776%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $127 −$126 -99%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $361 −$341 -94%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $68 −$68 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 07 $240 −$18 -7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 07 $49 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $55,071 +$2,982 +5%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $64 +$159 +250%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 07 $457 −$443 -97%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 06 $28 −$18 -62%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 05 $23 +$2 +7%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $62 +$297 +479%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $76 +$312 +412%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $18 +$1 +3%
Will Duke Rodriguez win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primar Jun 03 $14 +$5 +34%
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? Jun 03 $25 −$24 -96%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $47 −$46 -97%
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El Jun 03 $56 −$54 -98%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $1,000 +$83 +8%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 02 $30 −$29 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 02 $194 −$96 -49%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 01 $72 −$18 -24%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? Jun 01 $199 +$38 +19%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 01 $271 +$612 +226%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 01 $107 −$4 -4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 01 $136 +$8 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 01 $128 −$9 -7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 01 $149 −$10 -7%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $7 −$3 -39%
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $10 $0 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 01 $96 −$1 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 01 $102 +$5 +4%
Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by May 31? Jun 01 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $70 +$3 +5%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $97 +$16 +16%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $125 +$7 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $25,442 +$8,491 +33%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? May 30 $26 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $72 +$3 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $188 −$147 -78%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $57 +$41 +73%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 30 $387 −$69 -18%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $62 −$2 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 90% +$1,168
finance 5% −$347
politics 2% +$2,979
other 2% −$1,575
tech 1% −$784
crypto 0% −$450
sports 0% −$3
economics 0% +$6
culture 0% −$2
weather 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? SELL No 16¢ $61 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $4,380 30h
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $15,000 3d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $15 4d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $42 4d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 4d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $135 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? SELL No 84¢ $30 4d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? SELL No 2¢ $1 4d
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? BUY No 80¢ $137 5d
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? BUY No 79¢ $59 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? SELL No 31¢ $550 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 67¢ $187 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? SELL No 31¢ $2 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? SELL No 31¢ $104 5d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $365 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL No 41¢ $48 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? SELL No 31¢ $3 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL No 41¢ $10 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL No 41¢ $10 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL No 41¢ $13 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL No 41¢ $15 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL No 41¢ $18 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL No 41¢ $21 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL No 41¢ $24 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL No 41¢ $29 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL No 41¢ $34 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL No 41¢ $42 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL No 41¢ $50 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +117.4% +96.7% 40% 33% -1.4%
≤30d 86 +15.3% +4.3% 48% 24% +3.3%
≤90d 308 +2.1% -7.6% 44% 21% +2.4%
all 385 +0.7% -8.9% 41% 19% +2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover33.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 19% +2.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 12% -7.5%
15% -25.6% 9% -16.4%
20% -32.9% 7% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75,043.70 · official $72,782.06 · 3500 history records