Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:17:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd641…ee63 other 11 markets active 3d ago coverage 191d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$66 (-7%) realized −$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$256
14 days−$121
30 days−$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$121
economics 11% +$6
politics 5% $0
sports 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -50.4% -55.2% 33% 33% -52.6%
≤30d 9 -17.2% -25.1% 56% 56% -23.7%
≤90d 9 -17.2% -25.1% 56% 56% -23.7%
all 11 -13.5% -21.7% 64% 45% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 45% -20.9%
10% -29.2% 36% -28.4%
15% -36.1% 27% -35.3%
20% -42.3% 9% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$87 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

191d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage191d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $105 −$100 -96%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $84 +$41 +49%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $105 +$51 +49%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $106 +$98 +93%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $111 +$36 +32%
Seahawks vs. Patriots May 21 $9 +$2 +22%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Jan 11 $45 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $96 +$6 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $105 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $84 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $106 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $105 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $105 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $204 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $106 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $147 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $37 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $111 9d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Seahawks 82¢ $9 131d
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $45 178d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 94¢ $96 193d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 21 history records