Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:23:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D6
0xd64b…8fd3
sports · 31 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
+$47 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$34 · open +$13
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$135
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses15 / 8
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions8
Markets (closed)23 / 31
History coverage4d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit55%
Chart Positions 8 History 23 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days+$34
14 days+$34
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 5.5 Under 95¢ 99¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Scotland 96¢ 99¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $16 +$7 (+71%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 62¢ 74¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+19%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $4 +$0 (+17%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Under 85¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 14 $90 +$4 +4%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$1 +10%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $2 −$1 -30%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$11 -53%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $46 +$4 +8%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 13 $50 +$10 +20%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $49 −$49 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $50 +$18 +36%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $30 +$10 +33%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $37 +$3 +8%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $99 −$29 -29%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$7 +67%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $65 +$10 +16%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 12 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 −$3 -62%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $63 +$15 +24%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 12 $46 −$3 -7%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $70 +$30 +44%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $18 +$2 +8%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $78 +$12 +16%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $22 +$7 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 64% +$19
other 36% +$27
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) BUY Scotland 96¢ $40 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 1h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $50 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 84¢ $1 3h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 59¢ $1 3h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 91¢ $10 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 28¢ $9 3h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $2 4h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Brazil 95¢ $40 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 4h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Brazil 96¢ $50 4h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $46 18h
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) BUY Qatar 83¢ $50 18h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $49 18h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $9 23h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 96¢ $19 23h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 90¢ $9 24h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 90¢ $9 24h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 59¢ $29 24h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 75¢ $30 24h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 81¢ $40 24h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 78¢ $10 24h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $80 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 73¢ $50 24h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes $2 29h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 89¢ $45 30h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) SELL Canada 87¢ $46 30h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes $2 34h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $10 34h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -4.8% -13.9% 65% 43% -3.9%
≤30d 23 -4.8% -13.9% 65% 43% -3.9%
≤90d 23 -4.8% -13.9% 65% 43% -3.9%
all 23 -4.8% -13.9% 65% 43% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 43% -3.9%
10% -22.1% 26% -13.1%
15% -29.6% 13% -21.5%
20% -36.5% 4% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.74 · official $134.74 (match) · 68 history records