Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:58:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd64f…65c8 politics 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 202d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%3W / 47L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$330per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$6
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$10
sports 32% −$5
other 15% −$5
crypto 5% $0
economics 5% −$1
world 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 5 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 24 -0.2% -9.7% 12% 0% -9.7%
all 50 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

202d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses3 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage202d
Avg bet$330
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $266 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $267 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $820 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $271 −$3 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $541 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? May 16 $273 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 16 $273 +$1 +0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $273 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $275 −$2 -1%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $276 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $555 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $838 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $277 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $277 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $277 $0 +0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $277 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $278 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $278 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $278 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 30 $551 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 29 $278 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 26 $279 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Mar 24 $279 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 22 $279 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 21 $280 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 19 $280 $0 +0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 15 $554 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 13 $280 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 11 $281 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 10 $281 $0 +0%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after March 2026 meeting? Mar 07 $281 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 05 $272 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 05 $275 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Mar 04 $267 $0 -0%
Will the Nashville Predators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 03 $267 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 02 $273 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 01 $274 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 28 $269 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 27 $268 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Feb 26 $272 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 24 $271 −$1 -0%
Will Getafe win the 2025–26 La Liga? Feb 07 $275 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 06 $274 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 05 $276 $0 -0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 03 $273 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 09 $274 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 08 $274 $0 -0%
Will Espanyol win the 2025–26 La Liga? Dec 04 $275 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $266 2h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $16 17h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $43 18h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $5 18h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $5 21h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $198 22h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $266 5d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $267 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $267 7d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $269 8d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $269 12d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $271 14d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $271 18d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $272 19d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $272 25d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $273 26d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $273 35d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $273 35d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? SELL No 99¢ $273 37d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $273 37d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $273 38d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $81 38d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $85 38d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $107 38d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $273 39d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $273 40d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 98¢ $273 41d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $275 42d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $275 45d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $276 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 204 history records