Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:37:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd652…6354 sports 657 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 37d only
✗ bot/MM pace (83 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$16 (+0%) realized +$131 · open −$115
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%282W / 362L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day82.9pace
Fees−$427est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$324
7 days+$111
14 days+$5
30 days−$650
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,888
other 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (83 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 124 +7.3% -2.9% 50% 47% -6.6%
≤30d 543 -7.8% -16.6% 43% 38% -12.6%
≤90d 644 -6.4% -15.3% 44% 39% -14.2%
all 644 -6.4% -15.3% 44% 39% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover82.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 39% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 31% -22.4%
15% -30.8% 24% -29.9%
20% -37.6% 19% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$21 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized+$131
Unrealized−$115
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses282 / 362
Est. fees paid−$427
Open positions13
Markets (closed)644 / 657
History coverage37d ⚠
Avg bet$53
Trades / day82.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 644 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Esport BERG vs WBT Academy - Map 2 Winner WBT Academy 66¢ 50¢ $72 $55 −$17 (-24%)
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs OpTic Texas - Game 2 Winner OpTic Texas 71¢ 69¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-3%)
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Qualifiers Qualifier Los Angeles Thieves 90¢ 92¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+3%)
Overwatch: Falcons vs SuperBad (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage SuperBad 3¢ 2¢ $14 $12 −$1 (-11%)
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs Walczaki 60¢ 58¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs ex-Zero Tenacity - Map 1 Winner Leo Team 62¢ 10¢ $35 $6 −$30 (-83%)
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos SSG Landers 50¢ 52¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Qualifiers Qualifier Paris Gentle Mates 73¢ 75¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Overwatch: ZETA DIVISION vs ZANSIDE GAMING (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage ZANSIDE GAMING 3¢ 3¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN - Map 1 Winner 9z Team 45¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Spirit Academy - Map 2 Winner Spirit Academy 29¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: NAVI Junior vs WeClear (BO3) - ESEA European Finals Playoffs WeClear 30¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Linx Legacy Esport vs Fortress (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division 1 Playoffs Fortress 59¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 186 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 18 $287 −$69 -24%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Jun 18 $11 +$8 +72%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $149 +$145 +97%
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Gr Jun 18 $14 +$15 +101%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $315 −$165 -52%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $8 +$7 +86%
ITF Luque: Romina Ccuno vs Emily Zornada Jun 18 $63 +$37 +60%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 18 $23 +$3 +14%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $2 +$3 +134%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $21 +$10 +46%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $34 +$65 +194%
Valorant: DRX Academy vs T1 Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
ITF Sapporo: Kanon Sawashiro vs Aishi Das Jun 18 $28 +$16 +57%
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Xi Luo Jun 18 $22 +$7 +31%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $78 +$22 +29%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 18 $83 +$98 +118%
ITF Taipei: Eunhye Lee vs Haruka Kaji Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 18 $10 +$16 +158%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta Jun 18 $75 +$125 +165%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $25 −$6 -24%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 17 $172 −$170 -99%
ITF Irvine: Patsy Daughters vs Anna Tabunshchyk Jun 17 $35 −$34 -99%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $77 +$123 +159%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $92 +$98 +106%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $8 +$2 +31%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 16 $16 −$16 -97%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $24 +$26 +109%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 16 $85 −$84 -98%
Counter-Strike: Linx Legacy Esport vs Fortress (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ODDIK (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Jun 16 $11 +$5 +44%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $45 −$44 -98%
ITF Tokyo: Renta Tokuda vs Ryota Tanuma Jun 16 $160 +$40 +25%
ITF Tokyo: Yuto Oki vs Shinji Hazawa Jun 16 $39 −$39 -99%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $0 $0 +102%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $111 −$109 -99%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $6 −$1 -18%
Set 2 Winner: Bejlek vs Navarro Jun 15 $52 −$2 -3%
Set 1 Winner: Bejlek vs Navarro Jun 15 $51 −$1 -2%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut Jun 15 $37 +$21 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs OpTic Texas - Game 2 Winner BUY OpTic Texas 71¢ $6 3m
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs OpTic Texas - Game 2 Winner BUY OpTic Texas 71¢ $7 5m
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs OpTic Texas - Game 2 Winner BUY OpTic Texas 71¢ $7 7m
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs OpTic Texas - Game 2 Winner BUY OpTic Texas 71¢ $7 11m
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z Team 45¢ $48 1h
Counter-Strike: Esport BERG vs WBT Academy - Map 2 Winner BUY WBT Academy 59¢ $6 2h
Counter-Strike: Esport BERG vs WBT Academy - Map 2 Winner BUY WBT Academy 59¢ $6 2h
Counter-Strike: Esport BERG vs WBT Academy - Map 2 Winner BUY WBT Academy 59¢ $6 2h
Counter-Strike: Esport BERG vs WBT Academy - Map 2 Winner BUY WBT Academy 59¢ $6 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 28¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Esport BERG vs WBT Academy - Map 2 Winner BUY WBT Academy 70¢ $6 2h
Counter-Strike: Esport BERG vs WBT Academy - Map 2 Winner BUY WBT Academy 70¢ $42 2h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY Team Nemesis 65¢ $66 3h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY Team Nemesis 65¢ $66 3h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY Team Nemesis 65¢ $15 3h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY Team Nemesis 65¢ $66 3h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY Team Nemesis 65¢ $66 3h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed BUY ECHO 49¢ $10 3h
Overwatch: Falcons vs SuperBad (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage BUY SuperBad 3¢ $3 3h
Overwatch: Falcons vs SuperBad (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage BUY SuperBad 3¢ $3 3h
Overwatch: Falcons vs SuperBad (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage BUY SuperBad 3¢ $3 3h
Overwatch: Falcons vs SuperBad (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage BUY SuperBad 3¢ $3 3h
Overwatch: Falcons vs SuperBad (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage BUY SuperBad 3¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed BUY KOLESIE 30¢ $2 3h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 60¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: Linx Legacy Esport vs Fortress (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen BUY Fortress 59¢ $3 5h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 61¢ $3 5h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 60¢ $2 5h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY Team Nemesis 69¢ $9 7h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 59¢ $60 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.70 · official $128.91 (match) · 3500 history records