Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:13:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd654…42b3 crypto 1533 markets active 0h ago coverage 162d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 161d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,683 (-4%) realized −$4,683 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%697W / 828L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$814
7 days+$847
14 days+$847
30 days+$643
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$6,131
sports 0% +$137
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +32.3% +19.7% 69% 67% +24.9%
≤30d 86 +8.9% -1.5% 66% 59% +4.7%
≤90d 566 -8.7% -17.4% 49% 45% -15.0%
all 1525 -8.2% -16.9% 46% 42% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.9% 42% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -24.9% 38% -23.0%
15% -32.1% 32% -30.5%
20% -38.8% 24% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$57 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,683
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses697 / 828
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1525 / 1533
History coverage162d ⚠
Avg bet$69
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1525 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $93 +$98 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$91 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $104 +$105 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $144 +$274 +191%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $41 +$66 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 18 $29 +$9 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$7 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$19 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$32 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $67 +$34 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $66 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $54 −$51 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $42 +$12 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $156 −$156 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $150 +$146 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $98 +$117 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$24 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$23 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $24 +$23 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $28 +$25 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $144 −$144 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $24 +$15 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $67 +$70 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $41 +$31 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $52 +$43 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $68 +$98 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $62 +$126 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $31 +$19 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $37 +$42 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 26 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 26 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET May 26 $20 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 26 $18 +$8 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 26 $28 +$12 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 25 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 23 $6 −$6 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $93 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $194 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $417 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $144 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $67 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $63 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $67 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $67 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $66 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $54 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $54 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $42 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $156 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $46 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3444 history records