Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:05:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D6
0xd654…2efe
weather · 386 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$240 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$240 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$26
Realized−$240
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses196 / 187
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)383 / 386
History coverage51d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day29.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 383 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$75
7 days−$4
14 days−$118
30 days−$242
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? No 82¢ 79¢ $16 $16 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 13? No 81¢ 86¢ $10 $10 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 6? No 61¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on May 25? No 69¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 5? No 69¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 4? No 60¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on May 29? No 92¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 29? No 59¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 8? No 69¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 88°F or higher on May 17? Yes 85¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 10? No 74¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on May 22? No 82¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on May 17? No 67¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 25? No 73¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on June 10? No 51¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 14? No 69¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on May 12? No 63¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 29? No 52¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on May 24? No 85¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on May 5? No 23¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 10? No 94¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 88°F or higher on May 16? No 48¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on April 29? No 59¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on May 2? No 54¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 14? No 66¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 13? Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $21 −$9 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $24 −$17 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $11 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $11 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $29 −$21 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$2 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$2 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 11 $7 −$2 -26%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 11 $7 −$1 -13%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 −$17 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 11 $15 −$5 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 11 $4 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 12? Jun 11 $4 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 −$2 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 11 $11 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? Jun 11 $13 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 11 $7 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 +$3 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$1 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? Jun 11 $14 −$2 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 −$7 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $29 +$11 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -39%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $9 −$9 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 11? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 75°F or below on June 1 Jun 10 $4 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 10? Jun 10 $14 −$3 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $13 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $80 +$11 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $42 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 10? Jun 10 $8 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 9? Jun 09 $48 +$13 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on June 9? Jun 09 $24 +$5 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 09 $15 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 10? Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$1 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 99% −$245
sports 1% +$5
world 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 13? SELL No 81¢ $5 4m
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 78¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? SELL No 47¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 13? BUY No 77¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12? SELL No 23¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12? SELL No 16¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 83¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 88¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12? BUY No 23¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12? BUY No 24¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 82¢ $8 5h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12? BUY No 82¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12? BUY No 82¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12? BUY No 82¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 13? BUY No 87¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 83¢ $8 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 85¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 75¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 13? BUY No 87¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 78¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12? BUY No 83¢ $7 6h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12? BUY No 84¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? SELL No 67¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 12? SELL No 96¢ $11 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? SELL No 37¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 61¢ $3 11h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? SELL No 21¢ $8 11h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 11? SELL No 95¢ $10 17h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 11? SELL No 87¢ $4 17h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 11? SELL No 78¢ $8 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 -7.0% -15.9% 55% 39% -9.9%
≤30d 267 -12.1% -20.5% 51% 30% -18.3%
≤90d 383 -10.4% -18.9% 51% 32% -15.2%
all 383 -10.4% -18.9% 51% 32% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover29.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.9% 32% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -26.7% 21% -23.4%
15% -33.8% 10% -30.8%
20% -40.3% 7% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.06 · official $25.36 (match) · 1550 history records