Wallet analysis — Alpha Desk

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$0

7 days+$0

14 days+$0

30 days+$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	10¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	MOUZ	38¢	37¢	$6	$5	−$0 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner	MOUZ	36¢	78¢	$2	$4	+$2 (+115%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	TheMongolz	66¢	94¢	$2	$3	+$1 (+42%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	Jun 12	$1	$0	+5%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

sports 52% +$3

other 44% $0

world 4% $0

Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY MOUZ	30¢	$1	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner	BUY MOUZ	36¢	$2	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY MOUZ	39¢	$2	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	SELL MOUZ	36¢	$2	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY MOUZ	41¢	$2	1h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY TheMongolz	66¢	$2	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY MOUZ	42¢	$3	1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$10	18h
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	BUY No	95¢	$1	104d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-4.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+5.3%	-4.8%	100%	0%	-4.8%
≤30d	1	+5.3%	-4.8%	100%	0%	-4.8%
≤90d	1	+5.3%	-4.8%	100%	0%	-4.8%
all	1	+5.3%	-4.8%	100%	0%	-4.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-4.8%	0%	-4.8%
10%	-13.9%	0%	-13.9%
15%	-22.2%	0%	-22.2%
20%	-29.8%	0%	-29.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.