Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:21:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D6 0xd658…e518 crypto 153 markets active 1h ago coverage 544d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$19 (+2%) realized +$51 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate60%87W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$91
7 days+$91
14 days+$91
30 days+$204
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% +$52
other 17% −$14
world 15% +$70
finance 6% −$6
politics 6% −$26
tech 2% −$12
culture 1% −$6
economics 0% +$5
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +16.1% +5.0% 82% 71% +13.1%
≤30d 18 +46.7% +32.7% 83% 72% +38.6%
≤90d 21 +42.1% +28.6% 81% 67% +37.3%
all 144 -6.9% -15.7% 60% 38% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 38% -2.1%
10% -23.8% 28% -11.5%
15% -31.2% 22% -20.0%
20% -37.9% 13% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

544d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$51
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses87 / 57
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)144 / 153
History coverage544d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 40¢ 10¢ $30 $7 −$23 (-76%)
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-43%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 15¢ 17¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $4 $3 −$2 (-39%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+38%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 16¢ 6¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-65%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes 34¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Macron out by June 30, 2026? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 21 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 21 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$43 +169%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 $0 +31%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +73%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +38%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +24%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $20 +$113 +567%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 03 $5 $0 +1%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 10 $5 +$7 +144%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Mar 23 $3 +$1 +25%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Mar 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? Mar 16 $5 −$1 -20%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 04 $4 $0 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 04 $2 $0 +5%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 01 $6 +$4 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 24? Feb 24 $3 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 23? Feb 23 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7AM ET Feb 23 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2PM ET Feb 22 $5 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 22 $4 $0 +7%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Feb 20 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Feb 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Feb 19 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12PM ET Feb 19 $27 −$2 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times in Rome, Feb 19 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 10AM ET Feb 19 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 19? Feb 19 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Feb 19 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Feb 19 $1 $0 +41%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 19 $3 −$3 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 17? Feb 19 $5 +$3 +61%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 25 $18 −$8 -44%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jan Jan 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 10AM ET Jan 08 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 8AM ET Jan 08 $9 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $101 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 25h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 3d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 15¢ $5 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will United States win on 2026-06 BUY 4¢ $1 5d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 11d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 49d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $5 49d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $20 72d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.55 · official $26.55 (match) · 360 history records