Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:24:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D6 0xd658…2525 economics 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,545 (+18%) realized +$863 · open +$682
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate56%25W / 20L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$2,991now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$17
14 days+$17
30 days+$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 65% +$389
other 26% +$1,194
politics 5% +$131
finance 2% −$131
sports 1% −$63
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +4.3% -5.6% 100% 0% -5.6%
≤30d 5 -0.6% -10.1% 80% 60% -3.3%
≤90d 19 +6.1% -4.0% 58% 47% +14.1%
all 45 -11.1% -19.6% 56% 36% +6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 36% +6.6%
10% -27.3% 29% -3.6%
15% -34.3% 18% -13.0%
20% -40.8% 11% -21.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 59% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$17 · ×2.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.47 per $1 lost it wins $3.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$2,991
Realized+$863
Unrealized+$682
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses25 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)45 / 53
History coverage161d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? No 59¢ 94¢ $900 $1,426 +$526 (+58%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 69¢ 82¢ $358 $423 +$66 (+18%)
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? No 72¢ 95¢ $250 $332 +$82 (+33%)
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? No 80¢ 81¢ $319 $324 +$5 (+2%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? No 78¢ 83¢ $163 $174 +$10 (+6%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $168 $167 −$1 (-1%)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)? Yes 79¢ 76¢ $148 $142 −$7 (-5%)
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? No 70¢ 80¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 18 $400 +$17 +4%
ECB rate hike in 2026? Jun 04 $332 +$44 +13%
Bank of England rate hike in 2026? Jun 03 $43 +$7 +17%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 31 $73 +$30 +41%
World Championships: Czechia vs. Canada May 26 $46 −$36 -78%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? May 10 $545 −$3 -0%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju May 09 $227 +$80 +35%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 08 $100 +$52 +52%
ECB rate cut in 2026? Apr 29 $230 −$3 -2%
Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting? Apr 15 $29 −$14 -49%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 13 $100 +$55 +54%
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats? Apr 13 $242 +$6 +2%
Will Tisza win at least 120 seats? Apr 13 $136 +$47 +35%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 13 $314 +$76 +24%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $31 −$11 -35%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 12 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 31 $38 −$38 -100%
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30? Mar 27 $80 −$37 -46%
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? Mar 23 $401 +$616 +153%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Ap Mar 18 $114 +$68 +59%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 18 $43 +$4 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026? Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March? Mar 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Men's Quarterfinals - Canada vs. Czechia Mar 18 $20 +$6 +32%
Will Czech Republic win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Wi Mar 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026? Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027? Mar 14 $113 +$6 +5%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 14 $500 +$12 +2%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) Mar 12 $52 −$18 -35%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Mar 07 $109 −$80 -74%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of March? Mar 04 $9 +$10 +105%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the Mar 03 $17 +$5 +29%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 03 $60 +$24 +41%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the e Mar 03 $50 +$15 +30%
Men's Group A - Switzerland vs. Czechia Feb 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Men's Group A - Czechia vs. Canada Feb 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 04 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jan 26 $20 $0 +2%
Maduro mugshot released by January 16? Jan 18 $10 +$1 +5%
US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026? Jan 12 $4 $0 +9%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 9, 2026? Jan 12 $5 +$1 +14%
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 10, 202 Jan 09 $21 −$11 -52%
Israel strikes Iran by January 9, 2026? Jan 09 $10 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $58 1h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? SELL No 98¢ $41 1h
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? BUY No 82¢ $74 1h
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? BUY No 81¢ $77 2h
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? BUY No 70¢ $3 12h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 16h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 79¢ $219 16h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $172 10d
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $165 10d
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? BUY No 79¢ $52 10d
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? BUY No 78¢ $118 10d
ECB rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $351 14d
Bank of England rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $27 15d
Bank of England rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $23 15d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? SELL Yes 50¢ $11 18d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? SELL Yes 51¢ $8 18d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? SELL Yes 52¢ $6 18d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? SELL Yes 53¢ $78 18d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? BUY Yes 36¢ $73 21d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $102 21d
World Championships: Czechia vs. Canada SELL Czechia 11¢ $10 23d
World Championships: Czechia vs. Canada BUY Czechia 47¢ $9 23d
World Championships: Czechia vs. Canada BUY Czechia 48¢ $27 23d
World Championships: Czechia vs. Canada BUY Czechia 47¢ $1 23d
World Championships: Czechia vs. Canada BUY Czechia 47¢ $10 23d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $102 37d
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $68 39d
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY No 76¢ $34 39d
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju SELL Yes 97¢ $0 40d
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju SELL Yes 97¢ $107 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,990.94 · official $2,990.94 (match) · 381 history records