Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:09:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd658…3b4c sports 27 markets active 6d ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$251 (-15%) realized −$231 · open −$20
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate43%10W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$520now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$63
14 days−$52
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% −$159
other 25% −$10
world 24% +$3
crypto 14% −$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -25.3% -32.5% 67% 67% -38.5%
≤30d 16 -5.2% -14.3% 44% 44% -19.6%
≤90d 16 -5.2% -14.3% 44% 44% -19.6%
all 23 -12.6% -20.9% 43% 35% -27.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 35% -27.8%
10% -28.5% 26% -34.7%
15% -35.4% 26% -41.0%
20% -41.7% 26% -46.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$40 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$520
Realized−$231
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses10 / 13
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)23 / 27
History coverage149d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $400 $403 +$3 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 82¢ 65¢ $100 $80 −$20 (-20%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 22¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+17%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? No 84¢ 59¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $79 −$78 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $70 +$8 +12%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $22 +$23 +101%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 +$67 +262%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $4 +$11 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$24 +93%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $44 +$32 +73%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jan 29 $188 −$188 -100%
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Jan 29 $185 +$3 +1%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance Jan 28 $80 −$80 -100%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Jan 28 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jan 28 $60 +$111 +186%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101? Jan 26 $128 +$8 +7%
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jan 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $79 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $13 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $70 7d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 7d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 7d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY No 84¢ $20 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $400 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up $6 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 82¢ $101 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 8d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 27¢ $4 8d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 8d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $26 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $22 9d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 9d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $44 9d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY JD Gaming 54¢ $188 148d
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana BUY LNG Esports 99¢ $185 149d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 45¢ $80 149d
LoL: Ultra Prime vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana BUY Ultra Prime 38¢ $30 149d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY JD Gaming 35¢ $60 151d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101? BUY Yes 92¢ $50 153d
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Top Esports $2 153d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101? BUY Yes 95¢ $78 154d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $520.45 · official $520.45 (match) · 47 history records