Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:09:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd659…989a crypto 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$31 (+2%) realized +$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate55%22W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$32
sports 8% −$11
other 7% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -1.8% -11.1% 55% 38% -10.8%
≤30d 40 -1.8% -11.1% 55% 38% -10.8%
≤90d 40 -1.8% -11.1% 55% 38% -10.8%
all 40 -1.8% -11.1% 55% 38% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 38% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 32% -19.3%
15% -27.4% 15% -27.1%
20% -34.5% 8% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$11 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses22 / 18
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 43
History coverage7d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? No 35¢ 34¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $38 +$16 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 −$12 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $64 −$45 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$12 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $62 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $42 +$11 +26%
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $56 +$19 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 09 $140 −$22 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 09 $42 +$26 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 09 $46 −$21 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 09 $52 −$9 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 09 $67 −$13 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 09 $21 −$4 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 09 $20 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 09 $21 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 09 $41 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 09 $21 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 09 $51 −$14 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 09 $21 +$18 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 09 $26 −$13 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 09 $26 +$10 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 09 $29 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 09 $51 +$1 +3%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $25 −$2 -9%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $15 −$1 -7%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $61 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 09 $72 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 09 $51 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 08 $11 −$3 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $20 1h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 1h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $19 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.52 · official $24.52 (match) · 152 history records