Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:37:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd659…4abb other 143 markets active 1h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,080 (-19%) realized −$1,075 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%48W / 90L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days−$56
14 days−$26
30 days−$204
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$837
sports 33% −$198
crypto 2% −$62
world 1% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -18.4% -26.2% 37% 32% -20.0%
≤30d 38 -24.3% -31.5% 32% 29% -28.7%
≤90d 38 -24.3% -31.5% 32% 29% -28.7%
all 138 -10.1% -18.7% 35% 34% -27.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 34% -27.1%
10% -26.5% 33% -34.1%
15% -33.6% 29% -40.5%
20% -40.1% 26% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$32 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized−$1,075
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses48 / 90
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)138 / 143
History coverage238d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 43¢ 40¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 71 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $51 +$39 +76%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $5 +$6 +109%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $51 +$40 +79%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 27 $1 $0 +5%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $20 +$50 +247%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $15 −$5 -31%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$4 -9%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$23 +23%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 +$13 +25%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -19%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$32 -64%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$68 +334%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$9 -84%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +226%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$4 +83%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-03-06? Mar 07 $114 −$94 -82%
Will CA Osasuna vs. RCD Mallorca end in a draw? Mar 07 $10 −$6 -59%
Trail Blazers vs. Rockets Mar 07 $20 +$8 +41%
Heat vs. Hornets Mar 07 $10 +$3 +31%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $20 +$33 +163%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $10 +$26 +257%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Athletic Club vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? Dec 10 $10 +$30 +300%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Dec 10 $20 +$54 +270%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-10? Dec 10 $100 +$41 +41%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-12-10? Dec 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2025-12-10? Dec 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $89 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a dra BUY 19¢ $20 7h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 7h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 25h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $88 42h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 47h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 47h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 47h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 47h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 2d
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $31 2d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 95¢ $1 3d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 52¢ $46 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 4d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $10 4d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 4d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 26¢ $10 5d
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 85¢ $124 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.88 · official $124.88 (match) · 261 history records