Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:07:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D6 0xd65a…21eb crypto 1325 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$272 (-1%) realized −$271 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate96%1266W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day34.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$291now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$223
14 days−$205
30 days−$416
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$208
other 11% −$57
finance 5% +$12
sports 5% −$60
politics 5% +$4
world 3% −$65
culture 2% +$7
economics 1% +$2
tech 1% +$3
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 477 -0.5% -10.0% 94% 8% -10.9%
≤30d 823 -0.6% -10.0% 94% 5% -10.7%
≤90d 1320 -0.3% -9.8% 96% 3% -10.3%
all 1320 -0.3% -9.8% 96% 3% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 3% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 1% -18.9%
15% -26.3% 1% -26.7%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$24 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$291
Realized−$271
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses1266 / 54
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1320 / 1325
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$31
Trades / day34.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1320 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? No 98¢ 98¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will Free Patriotic Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-0%)
Will Hezbollah win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? No 99¢ 98¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-1%)
Will Antonio Maíllo be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election? No 99¢ 99¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will Juanma Moreno be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election? Yes 99¢ 97¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $290.76 · official $290.76 (match) · 3500 history records