Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:04:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd65a…e9a0 crypto 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate33%5W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-42.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -36.2% -42.3% 33% 13% -12.3%
≤30d 15 -36.2% -42.3% 33% 13% -12.3%
≤90d 15 -36.2% -42.3% 33% 13% -12.3%
all 15 -36.2% -42.3% 33% 13% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.3% 13% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -47.8% 7% -20.7%
15% -52.9% 7% -28.4%
20% -57.5% 0% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -70% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses5 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage3d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 24 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 24 $51 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 24 $153 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 24 $127 −$24 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $77 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 24 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 24 $75 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 24 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$7 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$12 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$1 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 59 history records