Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:22:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D6 0xd65f…a4e4 sports 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$97 (+18%) realized +$118 · open −$21
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate48%40W / 44L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day24.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$99
7 days+$85
14 days+$83
30 days+$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -2.0% -11.3% 48% 41% +8.7%
≤30d 84 -5.8% -14.8% 48% 40% +6.2%
≤90d 84 -5.8% -14.8% 48% 40% +6.2%
all 84 -5.8% -14.8% 48% 40% +6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 40% +6.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 36% -3.9%
15% -30.4% 27% -13.2%
20% -37.2% 26% -21.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$118
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses40 / 44
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)84 / 85
History coverage7d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day24.3
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Division One vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Pigeons 43¢ 12¢ $30 $8 −$21 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: SaD Esports vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage Jun 26 $17 +$8 +48%
Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe (BO5) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Pl Jun 26 $30 +$22 +73%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $4 −$4 -98%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 26 $35 +$23 +64%
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova Jun 26 $3 +$14 +442%
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $14 +$16 +114%
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Playoff Jun 26 $7 −$7 -98%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $21 +$5 +26%
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North Ameri Jun 26 $18 +$34 +188%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $19 +$1 +7%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 25 $10 −$4 -39%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $6 $0 +6%
Valorant: 9z Team vs BESTIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $10 −$1 -6%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $10 −$6 -65%
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Power Rangers (+1.5) Jun 24 $10 +$2 +15%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 24 $6 +$11 +165%
Valorant: REBORN vs Misa Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs MIBR Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $3 −$3 -99%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Mandatory (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A Jun 24 $6 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $10 −$9 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $5 +$4 +79%
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FER Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Jun 23 $8 $0 -1%
Valorant: OXEN vs Leviatán Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 22 $5 +$7 +134%
Valorant: OXEN vs Leviatán Academy (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Re Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Targu Mures: Miguel Tobon vs Martin Krumich Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina - Map 1 Winner Jun 22 $6 −$3 -41%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh Jun 22 $3 $0 +16%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - TESFED League Pl Jun 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Draxl vs Remy Bertola Jun 22 $3 −$1 -29%
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Barça eSports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage Jun 22 $4 +$1 +32%
Map Handicap: LILMIX (-1.5) vs ReThink (+1.5) Jun 22 $5 +$3 +57%
Plovdiv: Matteo Martineau vs Iliyan Radulov Jun 22 $4 −$4 -98%
Plovdiv: Tommaso Compagnucci vs Maxim Mrva Jun 22 $4 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: EP (-1.5) vs Barça eSports (+1.5) Jun 22 $8 −$8 -98%
Targu Mures: Cezar Cretu vs Akira Santillan Jun 22 $1 $0 -4%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 Jun 22 $4 −$2 -49%
Osaka vs. Frech: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 22 $4 +$5 +124%
Jeffrey John Wolf vs. Gavin Young: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina Jun 21 $5 +$5 +105%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $4 +$9 +226%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $5 +$1 +32%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $4 +$1 +31%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) Jun 21 $3 +$5 +165%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $3 $0 +3%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $5 +$5 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Division One vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 G BUY Pigeons 43¢ $30 1h
Valorant: SaD Esports vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage SELL SaD Esports 100¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe (BO5) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Pl SELL MIBR fe 100¢ $51 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 13¢ $4 2h
Valorant: SaD Esports vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage BUY SaD Esports 67¢ $17 3h
Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe (BO5) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Pl BUY MIBR fe 57¢ $30 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Power Rangers 100¢ $57 5h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 60¢ $35 7h
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova SELL Valerio Aboian 100¢ $17 8h
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium - Map 2 Winner SELL eternal premium 100¢ $30 8h
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova BUY Valerio Aboian 18¢ $3 8h
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium - Map 2 Winner BUY eternal premium 46¢ $14 9h
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Playoff BUY MASQ 50¢ $7 10h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $27 11h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 79¢ $21 11h
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North Ameri SELL YFT Esports 100¢ $52 23h
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North Ameri BUY YFT Esports 34¢ $18 24h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score SELL No 57¢ $20 24h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $19 25h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: SELL SaD Esports $0 25h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Inner Circle Esports 83¢ $6 26h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY SaD Esports 56¢ $4 26h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 77¢ $6 26h
Valorant: 9z Team vs BESTIA - Map 1 Winner SELL BESTIA 100¢ $3 26h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: SELL SaD Esports 39¢ $6 26h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY SaD Esports 33¢ $3 26h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY SaD Esports 48¢ $3 26h
Valorant: 9z Team vs BESTIA - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z Team 30¢ $2 26h
Valorant: 9z Team vs BESTIA - Map 1 Winner BUY BESTIA 53¢ $2 26h
Valorant: 9z Team vs BESTIA - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z Team 38¢ $4 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.27 · official $8.27 (match) · 192 history records