Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:28:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D6
0xd660…e8d9
other · 54 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$134 -15%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$113 · open −$21
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$604
Realized−$113
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses3 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions41
Markets (closed)13 / 54
History coverage330d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%
Chart Positions 41 History 13 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$23
14 days−$147
30 days−$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 50¢ 52¢ $380 $388 +$8 (+2%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 52¢ 55¢ $26 $28 +$1 (+6%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 43¢ 38¢ $28 $25 −$3 (-12%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 53¢ 50¢ $23 $21 −$1 (-5%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 21¢ 42¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+102%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 45¢ 43¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? No 63¢ 81¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+29%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 56¢ 52¢ $8 $8 −$1 (-6%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? No 42¢ 19¢ $17 $8 −$9 (-55%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 11¢ 14¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 62¢ 81¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+30%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 34¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? No 48¢ 48¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? No 50¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Trump out as President before GTA VI? No 50¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? No 50¢ 49¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? No 50¢ 51¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 52¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 38¢ 36¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 28¢ 22¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 51¢ 51¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 64¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? No 61¢ 99¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+62%)
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? No 38¢ 80¢ $1 $3 +$1 (+111%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in June? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -96%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Jun 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025? Jun 03 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $5 +$7 +134%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 27 $3 +$2 +65%
Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 Jul 20 $99 +$31 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 46% −$5
other 25% −$97
sports 15% +$40
crypto 7% −$50
politics 2% +$4
finance 2% −$16
tech 1% −$10
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 51¢ $2 1h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 50¢ $3 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $2 1h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 38¢ $3 1h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 52¢ $1 1h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY No 53¢ $2 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 20¢ $1 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $1 1h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 42¢ $2 27h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 50¢ $3 27h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 49¢ $2 27h
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 63¢ $1 47h
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 52¢ $3 47h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? BUY No 37¢ $2 47h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY No 57¢ $2 47h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 52¢ $3 47h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 43¢ $2 47h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $2 47h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 46¢ $2 47h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? BUY No 61¢ $2 47h
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 63¢ $1 2d
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 52¢ $3 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? BUY No 36¢ $2 2d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY No 57¢ $5 2d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 52¢ $3 2d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 43¢ $2 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $5 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 46¢ $2 2d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 43¢ $2 2d
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 53¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-63.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 12 -66.7% -69.9% 17% 17% -90.7%
≤90d 12 -66.7% -69.9% 17% 17% -90.7%
all 13 -59.2% -63.1% 23% 23% -48.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -63.1% 23% -48.9%
10% -66.6% 23% -53.8%
15% -69.8% 15% -58.3%
20% -72.8% 15% -62.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $603.84 · official $603.13 (match) · 127 history records