Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:31:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D6 0xd662…aeb5 other 160 markets active 2h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$267 (+7%) realized +$263 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate48%76W / 83L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$16
14 days+$37
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$67
sports 23% +$167
weather 20% −$110
crypto 9% −$21
politics 8% +$148
economics 1% −$10
finance 1% −$21
world 0% −$12
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +20.6% +9.1% 43% 43% +0.2%
≤30d 19 +4.1% -5.8% 42% 42% -10.0%
≤90d 159 -5.9% -14.8% 48% 42% -4.8%
all 159 -5.9% -14.8% 48% 42% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 42% -4.8%
10% -23.0% 35% -13.9%
15% -30.4% 29% -22.3%
20% -37.2% 22% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$11 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$263
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses76 / 83
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)159 / 160
History coverage89d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $46 $50 +$4 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $38 +$9 +23%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 −$3 -11%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $12 −$1 -7%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $18 −$9 -50%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $46 −$2 -5%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $11 +$5 +44%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $9 +$18 +200%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $15 +$24 +160%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Jun 15 $14 −$8 -53%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -25%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 14 $15 +$10 +70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 218.5 Jun 11 $13 +$10 +79%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 08 $16 −$16 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 06 $14 +$10 +73%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 03 $19 −$19 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $19 −$10 -53%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 May 28 $16 −$16 -99%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $14 +$12 +83%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 May 24 $20 +$15 +76%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 May 23 $30 +$20 +67%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 May 21 $53 −$52 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5 May 21 $33 +$29 +86%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $36 −$2 -5%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 May 20 $16 +$10 +59%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 218.5 May 19 $15 +$11 +70%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $16 +$4 +26%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5 May 18 $30 +$25 +82%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $25 −$17 -69%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $13 −$2 -18%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5 May 16 $20 +$10 +47%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 207.5 May 16 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $17 +$5 +30%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $10 +$5 +52%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 210.5 May 14 $16 +$12 +76%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $16 $0 +0%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 May 13 $16 +$13 +82%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 12 $11 +$7 +60%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 213.5 May 12 $12 +$2 +16%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 211.5 May 12 $13 +$10 +79%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $16 −$4 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 11 $10 −$4 -42%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $15 +$8 +52%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5 May 11 $12 +$10 +79%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $16 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on May 10? May 10 $15 −$5 -32%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 10? May 10 $12 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 10? May 10 $9 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL 79¢ $47 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 63¢ $38 30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 63¢ $27 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $11 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 44¢ $9 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL No 42¢ $9 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $9 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $19 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $12 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 78¢ $15 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $11 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 33¢ $9 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $16 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 59¢ $30 7d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 49¢ $10 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND SELL 20¢ $7 7d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 40¢ $14 8d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 BUY Under 58¢ $15 10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 10d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 218.5 BUY Under 55¢ $13 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 BUY Under 52¢ $16 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 BUY Under 57¢ $14 17d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 55¢ $19 19d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 20¢ $9 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.17 · official $50.17 (match) · 403 history records