Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:45:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D6
0xd663…c21b
other · 134 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$7 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$13 · open +$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$190
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses32 / 41
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions61
Markets (closed)73 / 134
History coverage14d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day26.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%
Chart Positions 61 History 73 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 48¢ 97¢ $8 $16 +$8 (+100%)
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? No 43¢ 61¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+43%)
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? Yes 55¢ 79¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+42%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 75¢ 92¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+23%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Yes 41¢ 48¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+16%)
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? No 80¢ 92¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+15%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 59¢ 66¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+11%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 64¢ 66¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? No 68¢ 72¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in June? No 74¢ 97¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+30%)
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 93¢ 94¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? Yes 57¢ 58¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 56¢ 59¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? No 72¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+39%)
Will Papertrade launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 79¢ 92¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+17%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? Yes 25¢ 18¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-30%)
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Yes 86¢ 90¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? No 74¢ 77¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? No 78¢ 76¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 39¢ 38¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 4¢ 14¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+242%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +61%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$2 -30%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $6 $0 +8%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +35%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $9 −$2 -19%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 12 $1 $0 +28%
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.9% and 5.2%? Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Jun 12 $5 $0 -8%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 12 $4 −$1 -31%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $8 −$2 -21%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 11 $5 $0 -3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 +20%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +27%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1 +$1 +105%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 12? Jun 10 $1 $0 -3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 10 $6 $0 -7%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 09 $6 +$4 +66%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June? Jun 09 $4 −$1 -22%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -96%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 07 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? Jun 07 $4 +$1 +17%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 07 $3 $0 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 07 $3 $0 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $7 +$2 +29%
Will GRVT launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $3 $0 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $4 $0 +4%
Will Puffpaw launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $6 $0 +3%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 in June? Jun 05 $2 +$2 +146%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 05 $2 −$1 -28%
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 05 $2 $0 -5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 05 $1 $0 -4%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 05 $21 −$1 -6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 05 $1 $0 -17%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by less than 3%? Jun 05 $3 +$2 +72%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? Jun 05 $6 −$2 -37%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $11 +$1 +6%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in June? Jun 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T? Jun 05 $7 $0 -7%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June? Jun 04 $1 $0 -43%
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $6 +$1 +12%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June? Jun 04 $6 −$1 -11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 04 $3 $0 -3%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 04 $4 +$5 +133%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $6 +$2 +42%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $6 +$3 +43%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $6 −$6 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 46% −$12
politics 16% +$11
world 14% $0
tech 13% +$5
sports 5% −$10
finance 3% +$3
economics 1% $0
weather 1% −$1
culture 1% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 72¢ $4 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 45¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 43¢ $2 2h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 94¢ $2 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL No 96¢ $1 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 5h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL No 97¢ $5 5h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 5h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 12? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 6h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY No 93¢ $3 6h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 6h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 6h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 92¢ $4 6h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 7h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL No 8¢ $0 7h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL No 9¢ $4 7h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 7h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 8h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 10h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 11h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 11h
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $0 12h
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +3.3% -6.5% 52% 35% -11.8%
≤30d 73 -3.9% -13.0% 44% 30% -13.5%
≤90d 73 -3.9% -13.0% 44% 30% -13.5%
all 73 -3.9% -13.0% 44% 30% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover26.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 30% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 25% -21.8%
15% -28.9% 18% -29.4%
20% -35.9% 12% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.11 · official $189.85 (match) · 389 history records