Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:46:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D6 0xd663…5624 sports 74 markets active 2d ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$159 (+11%) realized +$159 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%28W / 45L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$14
14 days+$155
30 days+$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$38
sports 33% +$103
crypto 3% +$23
world 1% −$9
politics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +1.0% -8.6% 33% 33% -13.4%
≤30d 73 +4.5% -5.5% 38% 36% +1.3%
≤90d 73 +4.5% -5.5% 38% 36% +1.3%
all 73 +4.5% -5.5% 38% 36% +1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 36% +1.3%
10% -14.5% 33% -8.4%
15% -22.8% 29% -17.2%
20% -30.4% 21% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$7 · ×2.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$159
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses28 / 45
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)73 / 74
History coverage23d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 73 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $18 −$18 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 Jun 26 $53 −$35 -66%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $112 +$19 +17%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $18 −$2 -14%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 $0 -7%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$1 -13%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 23 $23 +$15 +65%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $13 +$27 +202%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 21 $20 +$27 +134%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $20 −$5 -24%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$33 +325%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $63 +$41 +65%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $25 +$17 +66%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $30 −$13 -43%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $44 +$29 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $33 +$21 +62%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $11 −$3 -24%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $8 −$4 -50%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $106 +$44 +42%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $97 +$32 +33%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 $0 -14%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$8 -78%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +43%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $7 −$6 -84%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$13 +125%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $61 +$25 +41%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 -9%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$11 +107%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$12 +24%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$3 -53%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $81 +$17 +21%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$9 -63%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $36 −$27 -74%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $29 −$17 -57%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -78%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$8 +165%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$4 -19%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -78%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$7 +650%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $18 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 SELL 9¢ $18 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 25¢ $53 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 17¢ $20 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $25 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $25 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 35¢ $16 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 29¢ $9 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $18 3d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ $23 5d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY 32¢ $13 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 40¢ $19 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 5d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 35¢ $10 7d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 46¢ $15 7d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 59¢ $20 7d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $12 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 42¢ $20 7d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 24¢ $5 7d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 29¢ $17 7d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 49¢ $30 8d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 71¢ $21 8d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 66¢ $20 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 166 history records