Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:13:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D6 0xd668…2235 sports 91 markets active 2h ago coverage 227d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$147 (-1%) realized −$146 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate36%32W / 58L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$230per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$142
14 days−$145
30 days−$167
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$61
other 43% −$21
sports 4% +$9
world 2% −$114
crypto 0% −$10
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -19.3% -27.0% 17% 0% -22.8%
≤30d 14 -9.2% -17.8% 7% 0% -16.8%
≤90d 43 +8.7% -1.6% 33% 26% -10.5%
all 90 -4.1% -13.2% 36% 31% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 31% -10.4%
10% -21.5% 30% -19.0%
15% -29.1% 26% -26.8%
20% -36.1% 20% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$10 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized−$146
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses32 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)90 / 91
History coverage227d
Avg bet$230
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 23¢ $113 $112 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $192 −$10 -5%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $246 −$15 -6%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $238 −$3 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $106 +$8 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $75 −$10 -14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $115 −$112 -98%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $67 −$3 -4%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 09 $50 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $15 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $18 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $18 $0 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $443 −$13 -3%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $447 −$8 -2%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $47 −$2 -4%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $60 −$9 -15%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $65 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $201 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $64 $0 -1%
Spread: Celtics (-7.5) Apr 30 $28 +$27 +97%
Lightning vs. Canadiens Apr 30 $27 +$28 +105%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 30 $28 +$28 +101%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $220 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $250 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $220 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $320 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $120 $0 +0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $320 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $90 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 22 $320 −$8 -3%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 21 $10 +$6 +62%
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners Apr 21 $11 +$7 +62%
Stars vs. Maple Leafs Apr 21 $12 +$8 +61%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Apr 07 $1,062 +$10 +1%
Kraken vs. Jets Apr 07 $12 +$8 +61%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-06? Apr 06 $12 −$12 -99%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 06 $11 −$10 -99%
Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakers Apr 06 $9 +$3 +33%
Bulls vs. 76ers Apr 06 $9 +$4 +45%
Will Moldova win on 2026-03-26? Apr 06 $10 +$4 +45%
Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs Mar 25 $9 +$4 +49%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-03-20? Mar 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Hawks vs. Rockets Mar 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 19 $25 −$3 -13%
Timberwolves vs. Warriors Mar 19 $10 +$5 +45%
National Cricket League, Women: South Australian Scorpions vs New Sout Mar 19 $10 +$6 +59%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playof Mar 19 $21 +$27 +133%
Capitals vs. Flyers Mar 13 $7 +$8 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $113 2h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 24¢ $109 3h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $114 15h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 18¢ $102 18h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 18¢ $109 18h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 24¢ $104 18h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $18 19h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 19h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 19h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 19h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $89 19h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 24¢ $104 41h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $109 41h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 16¢ $113 42h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $122 42h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 16¢ $115 42h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $119 2d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 16¢ $39 2d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 16¢ $40 2d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 16¢ $30 2d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $18 2d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $101 2d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 16¢ $56 2d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 16¢ $47 2d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 16¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.29 · official $112.29 (match) · 340 history records