Wallet analysis — Alpha Desk

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$2,500	$2,585	+$85 (+3%)
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$300	$496	+$196 (+65%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$400	$491	+$91 (+23%)
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$400	$0	−$400 (-100%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey?	Yes	9¢	0¢	$320	$0	−$320 (-100%)
Will Thomas Massie join the America Party?	Yes	10¢	0¢	$300	$0	−$300 (-100%)
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?	Yes	3¢	0¢	$324	$0	−$324 (-100%)
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?	Yes	3¢	0¢	$1,000	$0	−$1,000 (-100%)
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$734	$0	−$734 (-100%)
Israel x Turkey military clash in 2025?	Yes	12¢	0¢	$400	$0	−$400 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?	Nov 08	$1,000	−$1,000	-100%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey?	Sep 04	$320	−$320	-100%
Israel x Turkey military clash in 2025?	Sep 04	$400	−$400	-100%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?	Jul 12	$324	−$324	-100%
Will Thomas Massie join the America Party?	Jul 12	$300	−$300	-100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?	Jun 21	$734	−$734	-100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting?	Apr 19	$400	−$400	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

other 45% −$535

economics 39% −$2,262

world 8% −$400

politics 6% +$91

crypto 1% $0

Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? AND	BUY	21¢	$179	23m
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$685	42m
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$344	42m
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$443	3h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$1,101	3h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	BUY Yes	0¢	$16	4h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	BUY Yes	0¢	$36	4h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	BUY Yes	0¢	$21	4h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	BUY Yes	0¢	$26	4h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	BUY Yes	0¢	$41	4h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	BUY Yes	0¢	$154	4h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	BUY Yes	0¢	$21	4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14	BUY	6¢	$103	4h
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?	BUY Yes	3¢	$300	216d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?	BUY Yes	3¢	$700	216d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey?	BUY Yes	10¢	$100	280d
Israel x Turkey military clash in 2025?	BUY Yes	12¢	$400	280d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey?	BUY Yes	9¢	$20	280d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY Yes	1¢	$400	281d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey?	BUY Yes	8¢	$200	281d
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?	BUY Yes	3¢	$300	335d
Will Thomas Massie join the America Party?	BUY Yes	10¢	$300	335d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?	BUY Yes	2¢	$7	355d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?	BUY Yes	2¢	$2	355d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?	BUY Yes	2¢	$7	355d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?	BUY Yes	2¢	$2	356d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?	BUY Yes	2¢	$4	356d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?	BUY Yes	2¢	$0	356d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?	BUY Yes	2¢	$31	356d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?	BUY Yes	2¢	$0	356d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-100.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	7	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
10%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
15%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
20%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.