Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:42:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd66e…d62f other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$30 (-20%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate29%5W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$26
sports 8% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-53.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -49.0% -53.9% 29% 24% -32.7%
≤30d 17 -49.0% -53.9% 29% 24% -32.7%
≤90d 17 -49.0% -53.9% 29% 24% -32.7%
all 17 -49.0% -53.9% 29% 24% -32.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -53.9% 24% -32.7%
10% -58.3% 24% -39.2%
15% -62.3% 24% -45.1%
20% -66.0% 18% -50.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -71% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses5 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)17 / 22
History coverage5d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$16 -80%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 +$1 +4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +56%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $7 −$3 -45%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$5 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 +$6 +38%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -67%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 26h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $6 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $16 28h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $16 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $4 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 90¢ $4 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $5 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $4 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 4d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $7 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.41 · official $19.41 (match) · 42 history records