Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:21:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

D6 0xd674…027f sports 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$307 (+17%) realized +$299 · open +$8

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip

Net edge+3%after slip

Net WR57%break-even

Win rate57%12W / 9L

Drawdown70%max

Avg bet$72per market

Trades / day4.9pace

Fees−$21est.

Kalshi-fit72%portable

Net worth$268now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +57%

net ROI/market (all)+7.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	+19.0%	+7.7%	57%	57%	+7.9%
≤30d	21	+19.0%	+7.7%	57%	57%	+7.9%
≤90d	21	+19.0%	+7.7%	57%	57%	+7.9%
all	21	+19.0%	+7.7%	57%	57%	+7.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.9 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+7.7%	57%	+7.9%
10%	-2.6%	52%	-2.4%
15%	-12.1%	52%	-11.8%
20%	-20.7%	43%	-20.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +19% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +2% → late +35% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$73 vs −$65 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$268

Realized+$299

Unrealized+$8

Win rate (resolved)57%

Wins / losses12 / 9

Est. fees paid−$21

Open positions4

Markets (closed)21 / 25

History coverage6d

Avg bet$72

Trades / day4.9

Drawdown70%

Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	Over	55¢	72¢	$100	$132	+$32 (+32%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners	Over	53¢	53¢	$100	$100	+$0 (+0%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	DR Congo	47¢	30¢	$50	$31	−$19 (-37%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Yes	17¢	8¢	$10	$4	−$6 (-56%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$152	+$24	+16%
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	Jun 17	$51	−$50	-99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$101	+$48	+48%
Spread: France (-1.5)	Jun 16	$51	+$74	+146%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$51	+$47	+93%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5	Jun 16	$65	+$71	+109%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	Jun 15	$51	−$50	-98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 15	$51	+$65	+129%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$24	−$24	-98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	Jun 15	$203	−$200	-99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 15	$61	+$147	+240%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$61	−$60	-98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	Jun 14	$102	+$133	+131%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner	Jun 14	$51	−$50	-98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5	Jun 13	$101	−$100	-99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$102	+$98	+97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$51	+$56	+109%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$31	−$30	-98%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?	Jun 12	$21	−$20	-97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$101	+$42	+42%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	Jun 11	$51	+$71	+140%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	55¢	$101	1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	53¢	$101	1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY DR Congo	47¢	$51	1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$10	1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	57¢	$101	11h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	BUY Jordan	55¢	$51	13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	48¢	$51	13h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5	BUY Over	47¢	$65	43h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	BUY Belgium	38¢	$51	46h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	32¢	$24	47h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	54¢	$203	2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Cabo Verde	43¢	$51	2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	51¢	$51	2d
Spread: France (-1.5)	BUY France	40¢	$51	2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$101	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	25¢	$10	2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$10	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	27¢	$51	2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$51	2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	BUY T1	39¢	$51	3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	BUY T1	47¢	$51	3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner	BUY T1	24¢	$51	3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	52¢	$101	3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	20¢	$31	5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	BUY No	47¢	$51	5d
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?	BUY Over	7¢	$21	5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	50¢	$102	5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	70¢	$101	5d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	BUY Mexico	41¢	$51	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $267.61 · official $267.75 (match) · 41 history records