Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:43:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D6
0xd675…5cde
other · 241 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
+$402 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$781 · open +$413
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,553
Realized−$781
Unrealized+$413
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses55 / 182
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions4
Markets (closed)237 / 241
History coverage140d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%
Chart Positions 4 History 237 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$650
7 days−$650
14 days−$441
30 days+$1,576
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1? Yes 47¢ 86¢ $414 $762 +$348 (+84%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1? Yes 39¢ 64¢ $425 $685 +$260 (+61%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1? Yes 26¢ 6¢ $243 $61 −$182 (-75%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week 1? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $58 $45 −$13 (-22%)
Will MrBeast's video get between 84 and 85 million views on day 6? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? No 5¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 62 million views on day 3? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 3? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $369 $0 −$369 (-100%)
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? No 0¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's latest video get between 75 and 76 million views on day 6? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? No 6¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 52 million views on day 2? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 3? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
Will MrBeast hit 480 million subscribers by April 30? No 11¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's latest video get between 64 and 65 million views on day 4? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? No 6¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Trump Leave China on May 15? No 0¢ 0¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's latest video get between 65 and 66 million views on day 4? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's latest video get between 74 and 75 million views on day 6? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's next video get 50 million or more views on day 1? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $88 −$65 -74%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,609 −$509 -32%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 Jun 13 $333 −$42 -12%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $66 −$34 -51%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 63.5 and 64 million views in wee Jun 07 $347 +$160 +46%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 61 and 62 million views on day 6 Jun 05 $244 −$182 -75%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 58 and 59 million views on day 5 Jun 04 $124 −$75 -61%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week Jun 03 $1,607 +$944 +59%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $211 −$8 -4%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week Jun 01 $837 −$630 -75%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $690 −$49 -7%
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? May 26 $163 +$111 +68%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 25 $213 −$46 -21%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week May 23 $3,200 +$1,625 +51%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 58 and 59 million views on day 5 May 21 $55 +$294 +538%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 3 May 19 $377 −$369 -98%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 3 May 19 $104 −$95 -92%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 42 and 44 million views on day 2 May 18 $647 +$72 +11%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week May 18 $583 +$160 +28%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 May 17 $180 +$320 +178%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 May 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump Leave China on May 15? May 14 $44 −$42 -96%
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Street" this week? May 11 $132 −$40 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $231 −$9 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $139 −$9 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 09 $30 −$28 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 09 $38 −$38 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? May 09 $259 −$45 -17%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week May 09 $1,093 +$173 +16%
Will MrBeast's video get between 62 and 64 million views on day 3? May 05 $40 −$4 -9%
Will MrBeast's video get between 68 and 70 million views on day 3? May 05 $3 −$3 -93%
Will MrBeast's video get between 66 and 68 million views on day 3? May 05 $57 −$56 -98%
Will MrBeast's video get between 64 and 66 million views on day 3? May 05 $306 +$117 +38%
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 04 $165 −$17 -10%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 May 03 $442 +$396 +90%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 May 03 $121 −$120 -99%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1 May 02 $37 −$35 -95%
Will MrBeast's next video get 50 million or more views on day 1? May 02 $19 −$18 -95%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? May 02 $34 −$32 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 30 $966 −$115 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? Apr 30 $30 −$18 -60%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026? Apr 30 $112 −$5 -4%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? Apr 29 $25 −$24 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 26 $355 −$4 -1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 26 $144 −$6 -4%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Apr 24 $110 −$80 -73%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 24 $68 +$36 +53%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will MrBeast's video get between 84 and 85 million views on day 6? Apr 24 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 89% +$969
sports 4% −$514
world 3% −$91
politics 2% −$548
crypto 1% −$127
economics 0% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 32¢ $73 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week SELL Yes 5¢ $21 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week SELL Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 SELL Yes 2¢ $16 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 24¢ $180 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 SELL Yes 4¢ $6 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 65¢ $220 5h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY Yes 10¢ $110 5h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 8¢ $88 5h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 39¢ $438 6h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 36¢ $205 6h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 50¢ $586 7h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 50¢ $40 7h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 50¢ $5 7h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 50¢ $30 7h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 50¢ $200 7h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 50¢ $239 7h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $101 7h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $631 7h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $3 7h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $4 7h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $342 7h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $529 7h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 SELL Yes 15¢ $292 9h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 2¢ $9 11h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 11h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 11h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 2¢ $8 11h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 2¢ $12 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-38.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -42.4% -47.9% 0% 0% -37.6%
≤30d 21 +12.7% +1.9% 38% 38% +2.7%
≤90d 198 -40.6% -46.2% 19% 17% -12.0%
all 237 -32.4% -38.8% 23% 20% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.8% 20% -11.4%
10% -44.7% 17% -19.9%
15% -50.0% 15% -27.6%
20% -54.9% 11% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,553.42 · official $1,553.42 (match) · 1082 history records