Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:33:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D6
0xd675…a380
other · 107 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$87 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$79 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$36
Realized−$79
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses48 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)106 / 107
History coverage448d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 1 History 106 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$2
14 days−$26
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? No 21¢ 19¢ $40 $36 −$4 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $540 −$1 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $251 +$3 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $133 −$1 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $240 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $140 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $176 −$6 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 02 $484 −$22 -5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $268 +$1 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $8 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $141 +$2 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 26 $52 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $42 −$3 -8%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $143 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $145 −$1 -0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $742 +$1 +0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 27 $226 −$30 -13%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $932 −$11 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $2,608 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $936 −$4 -0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 17 $13 −$1 -9%
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Apr 17 $23 −$2 -9%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $940 −$1 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Mar 03 $8 $0 +2%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 12 $5 $0 +6%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 202 Dec 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $7 $0 -2%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $22 $0 +2%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Oct 20 $13 −$2 -16%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $21 $0 +1%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? Aug 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will no leader be out in 2025? Aug 15 $2 $0 +2%
Will Trump meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in August? Aug 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 14 $27 $0 +1%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 National League Championship? Aug 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in August? Aug 13 $5 $0 +1%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Aug 12 $7 $0 +1%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell in August? Aug 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August? Aug 11 $1 $0 -8%
Will Seán Kelly win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 11 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 35% −$10
world 24% −$34
other 24% −$8
politics 14% −$31
crypto 1% −$1
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 19¢ $40 22m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $84 1h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 41h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 41h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 41h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 41h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 62¢ $33 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $21 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $79 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $132 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 97¢ $132 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 98¢ $133 3d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $121 4d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $121 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $121 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 60¢ $119 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $18 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $100 6d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $59 6d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $59 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $119 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $119 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $113 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $7 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $119 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $20 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $96 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $2 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $119 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $26 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 60% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 15 -0.7% -10.2% 47% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 23 -1.9% -11.3% 35% 0% -10.3%
all 106 -1.7% -11.0% 45% 3% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 3% -10.2%
10% -19.6% 1% -18.8%
15% -27.3% 1% -26.7%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.48 · official $36.48 (match) · 368 history records