Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:17:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd677…aa0e other 285 markets active 15h ago coverage 388d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$189 (-4%) realized −$186 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%121W / 151L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$55
14 days−$109
30 days−$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$148
other 26% −$24
tech 15% +$126
finance 5% −$63
sports 5% −$62
crypto 4% −$22
politics 1% −$8
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -15.1% -23.2% 45% 45% -18.8%
≤30d 66 -18.7% -26.4% 45% 41% -18.4%
≤90d 166 -38.3% -44.2% 32% 30% -33.6%
all 272 -11.9% -20.3% 44% 42% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 42% -13.1%
10% -27.9% 33% -21.4%
15% -34.9% 26% -29.0%
20% -41.3% 20% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$11 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

388d coverage
Net worth$147
Realized−$186
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses121 / 151
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions13
Markets (closed)272 / 285
History coverage388d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 272 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 83¢ 96¢ $21 $24 +$3 (+16%)
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 70¢ 62¢ $21 $18 −$3 (-12%)
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 76¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$1 (-9%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 46¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Will Neymar score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Will Neymar score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $3 +$1 (+39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rafael Leão be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $13 +$6 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $14 +$6 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $11 −$11 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $11 −$6 -53%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 +$46 +373%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Jun 13 $45 −$2 -4%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Jun 13 $30 −$9 -30%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? Jun 12 $30 +$10 +33%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -77%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $5 +$5 +103%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $16 +$28 +177%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 12 $30 +$10 +34%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $17 +$3 +16%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $13 +$4 +32%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $31 +$7 +22%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $15 +$5 +32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $92 −$92 -100%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $20 +$6 +27%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $36 +$4 +12%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $12 +$5 +42%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $10 −$5 -49%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $36 +$3 +8%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 08 $8 −$2 -31%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $12 +$9 +73%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $23 −$2 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $46 −$46 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $29 +$16 +56%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $21 −$14 -67%
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $7 −$7 -94%
Will SpaceX raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $5 +$17 +334%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? Jun 01 $15 −$5 -36%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $15 +$7 +45%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $51 +$21 +42%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $45 −$37 -83%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 30 $43 +$15 +35%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $25 +$3 +13%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 15h
Will Neymar score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 19h
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 19h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 22h
Will Neymar score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 24h
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 25h
Will Rafael Leão be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY Yes 40¢ $8 26h
Will Neymar score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 27h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $21 27h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 29h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 29h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 29h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 29h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 29h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 29h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 29h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 29h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 29h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 29h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 30h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 30h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 30h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 30h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 30h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 30h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 30h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 30h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 30h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 30h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $15 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.57 · official $146.57 (match) · 920 history records