Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:56:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D6 0xd677…9700 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$137 (+29%) realized +$118 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%6W / 9L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$98
sports 25% +$52
crypto 4% −$18
world 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +5.7% -4.4% 40% 40% +18.7%
≤30d 15 +5.7% -4.4% 40% 40% +18.7%
≤90d 15 +5.7% -4.4% 40% 40% +18.7%
all 15 +5.7% -4.4% 40% 40% +18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 40% +18.7%
10% -13.5% 40% +7.4%
15% -21.9% 40% -3.0%
20% -29.6% 40% -12.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$12 · ×2.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized+$118
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses6 / 9
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)15 / 18
History coverage5d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $65 $69 +$4 (+5%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $45 $55 +$10 (+22%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 75¢ 90¢ $30 $36 +$6 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $7 +$6 +86%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 −$4 -36%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $22 +$14 +66%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $9 +$30 +318%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $78 +$66 +84%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 −$10 -47%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $62 +$55 +89%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $19 +$43 +226%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $31 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $22 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $14 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $7 23h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 27h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 29h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $16 29h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $36 29h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $22 32h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 44h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $9 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $18 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $53 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $18 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $78 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $11 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $21 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $18 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 94¢ $117 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $62 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $62 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $19 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $159.31 · official $159.31 (match) · 41 history records