Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:22:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D6 0xd67b…5780 world 196 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d ⚠
BOTnot copyable world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 59d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$76,693 (+19%) realized +$75,647 · open +$1,046
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate57%100W / 74L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$2,103per market
Trades / day56.1pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$38,260now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
world 92% +$34,815
other 5% +$224
finance 2% +$378
politics 1% +$348
sports 1% −$10
crypto 0% −$832
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +75.6% +58.9% 64% 50% -2.7%
≤30d 120 +21.1% +9.6% 54% 33% -3.8%
≤90d 174 +21.2% +9.7% 57% 36% -1.4%
all 174 +21.2% +9.7% 57% 36% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.7% 36% -1.4%
10% -0.8% 22% -10.9%
15% ← realistic here -10.4% 14% -19.5%
20% -19.2% 10% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$2,681) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +34% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$506 vs −$236 · ×2.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.02 per $1 lost it wins $3.02
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$38,260
Realized+$75,647
Unrealized+$1,046
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses100 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions26
Markets (closed)174 / 196
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$2,103
Trades / day56.1
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 90¢ 92¢ $8,982 $9,245 +$263 (+3%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 82¢ 86¢ $4,704 $4,963 +$258 (+5%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 83¢ 92¢ $4,130 $4,625 +$495 (+12%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 90¢ 95¢ $4,049 $4,268 +$219 (+5%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 97¢ $3,174 $3,397 +$223 (+7%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 83¢ 88¢ $2,898 $3,097 +$199 (+7%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? No 71¢ 76¢ $1,867 $2,021 +$155 (+8%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 82¢ 79¢ $1,570 $1,516 −$54 (-3%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 81¢ 88¢ $1,219 $1,313 +$93 (+8%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 83¢ 99¢ $835 $995 +$160 (+19%)
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? No 83¢ 99¢ $830 $986 +$156 (+19%)
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No 87¢ 96¢ $870 $955 +$85 (+10%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Yes 53¢ 15¢ $1,313 $375 −$938 (-71%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 68¢ 70¢ $170 $175 +$5 (+3%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Yes 15¢ 9¢ $234 $136 −$98 (-42%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 10¢ 16¢ $46 $71 +$25 (+53%)
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? No 32¢ 60¢ $26 $48 +$22 (+87%)
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $50 $28 −$22 (-45%)
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 39¢ 12¢ $43 $13 −$30 (-69%)
Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026? No 79¢ 90¢ $10 $12 +$1 (+15%)
Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $64 $11 −$53 (-83%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $26 $3 −$23 (-87%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $38 $3 −$35 (-92%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 19¢ 1¢ $48 $2 −$46 (-96%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $17 $2 −$15 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $2,084 −$274 -13%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $2,969 −$168 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $2,843 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 16 $1,264 −$471 -37%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 16 $2,698 +$22 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1,133 +$191 +17%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $304 −$304 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $13,575 +$2,432 +18%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 15 $117 +$396 +340%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $157 +$42 +27%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 15 $85 +$1,533 +1811%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 15 $298 +$67 +22%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $7,559 +$431 +6%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $6,102 +$473 +8%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1,389 +$313 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $812 −$612 -75%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $2,180 +$537 +25%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $54 +$117 +217%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $120 +$53 +44%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $10,543 +$884 +8%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $3,428 +$458 +13%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $12,977 +$2,365 +18%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 14 $34 +$6 +18%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $2,314 −$71 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $4,199 +$25 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $5,298 −$1,152 -22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 14 $30 $0 -0%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $58 −$30 -52%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $9,020 −$1,047 -12%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $3 +$8 +275%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $1,655 +$456 +28%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $68 −$11 -16%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $618 +$132 +21%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $782 +$468 +60%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $275 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $70 +$39 +56%
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? Jun 08 $286 +$41 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 08 $2,160 −$165 -8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $9,437 −$36 -0%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1,086 +$134 +12%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Jun 08 $647 +$110 +17%
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, Jun 08 $69 −$14 -21%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $2,266 −$1,862 -82%
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? Jun 07 $410 +$54 +13%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $34 −$21 -61%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $44 +$14 +31%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? Jun 07 $66 −$35 -53%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? Jun 07 $735 −$15 -2%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 07 $1,235 +$2 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $4,247 −$521 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 21¢ $452 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 58¢ $614 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 33¢ $98 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 77¢ $589 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 42¢ $701 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 35¢ $296 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 72¢ $188 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 36¢ $187 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 36¢ $63 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 36¢ $396 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 36¢ $110 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 36¢ $216 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 36¢ $540 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 51¢ $1,423 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 45¢ $383 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 45¢ $3 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 45¢ $27 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 45¢ $375 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 52¢ $3 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 52¢ $5 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 34¢ $87 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 34¢ $8 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 34¢ $160 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 55¢ $855 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 45¢ $367 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 45¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38,259.78 · official $38,265.63 (match) · 3500 history records