Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:17:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D6 0xd67d…bc1f crypto 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-3%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate55%23W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$32
14 days+$14
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$4
other 5% −$21
sports 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -1.5% -10.9% 58% 46% -5.4%
≤30d 40 -3.6% -12.8% 58% 50% -7.7%
≤90d 42 -8.2% -16.9% 55% 48% -12.1%
all 42 -8.2% -16.9% 55% 48% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 48% -12.1%
10% -24.9% 31% -20.5%
15% -32.1% 14% -28.2%
20% -38.8% 10% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$11 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses23 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage37d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 28 $38 +$10 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 28 $59 −$24 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 28 $54 +$32 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 28 $53 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 28 $48 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 28 $44 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 28 $64 −$11 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 28 $16 +$5 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 27 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 27 $21 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 27 $21 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 27 $24 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 27 $16 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 27 $21 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 27 $27 −$5 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 27 $27 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 27 $27 +$29 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 27 $21 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 27 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 27 $16 +$7 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 27 $11 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 27 $21 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 27 $21 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$8 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 19 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$7 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$7 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $22 −$20 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 19 $13 +$20 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$3 +29%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 19 $14 +$13 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$2 +14%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $19 +$4 +23%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 -13%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 22 $26 −$25 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 23? May 22 $21 −$20 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $6 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $32 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $26 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $33 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $21 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $33 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $21 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $32 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $21 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $21 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $21 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $16 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $16 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $16 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $11 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $16 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $11 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $16 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $16 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 89 history records