Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:32:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D6 0xd67d…0d77 weather 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$103 (-4%) realized −$105 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate81%17W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$711now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% +$1
sports 20% −$106
weather 18% +$1
other 7% $0
tech 3% $0
world 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 21 -4.5% -13.6% 81% 0% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 0% -14.0%
10% -21.9% 0% -22.2%
15% -29.4% 0% -29.7%
20% -36.3% 0% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$27 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$711
Realized−$105
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses17 / 4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)21 / 23
History coverage176d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $643 $645 +$2 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $66 $66 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 25? Mar 24 $37 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 19 Mar 19 $73 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C or below on March 18? Mar 18 $72 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on March 6? Mar 07 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C or below on March 6? Mar 06 $45 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 05 $277 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Apple announce the iPhone 17e by February 28? Mar 02 $77 $0 +0%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 01 $464 −$1 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February? Feb 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on February Feb 16 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on February 4 Feb 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 46-47°F on February Feb 16 $19 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 16 $28 $0 +1%
76ers vs. Hornets Jan 26 $105 −$105 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C or below on January 20? Jan 21 $62 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on December 30? Jan 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on January Jan 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -3°C or below on January 10 Jan 15 $41 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 15 $180 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $66 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $37 91d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 19 BUY No 99¢ $73 96d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C or below on March 18? BUY No 100¢ $72 97d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $643 106d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $276 109d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C or below on March 6? BUY No 100¢ $45 110d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $515 110d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on March 6? BUY No 99¢ $35 110d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $277 111d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $516 113d
Will the New York Rangers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 100¢ $463 114d
Will the New York Rangers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 100¢ $464 115d
Will Apple announce the iPhone 17e by February 28? BUY No 100¢ $77 116d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on February BUY No 99¢ $11 134d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $17 136d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February? BUY No 100¢ $13 137d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on February 4 BUY No 100¢ $15 139d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 46-47°F on February BUY No 100¢ $19 139d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $28 147d
76ers vs. Hornets BUY 76ers 45¢ $105 147d
Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C or below on January 20? BUY No 100¢ $62 155d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -3°C or below on January 10 BUY No 100¢ $41 164d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on January BUY No 100¢ $30 167d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $180 174d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on December 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 176d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $710.84 · official $710.84 (match) · 153 history records