Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:56:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
D6 0xd67f…d9b3 other 37 markets active 8h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized −$31 · open +$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day15.1pace
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$4,930now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$6
politics 26% −$16
world 23% +$46
culture 2% +$6
weather 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -2.3% -11.6% 83% 17% -8.7%
≤30d 6 -2.3% -11.6% 83% 17% -8.7%
≤90d 6 -2.3% -11.6% 83% 17% -8.7%
all 6 -2.3% -11.6% 83% 17% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 17% -8.7%
10% -20.1% 17% -17.4%
15% -27.8% 17% -25.4%
20% -34.9% 17% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$10 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$4,930
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$41
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Open positions31
Markets (closed)6 / 37
History coverage4d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 94¢ $500 $503 +$3 (+1%)
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? Yes 86¢ 91¢ $400 $421 +$21 (+5%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $400 $402 +$2 (+1%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $234 $230 −$4 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $199 $212 +$13 (+7%)
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30? No 89¢ 92¢ $200 $208 +$8 (+4%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 88¢ $200 $206 +$6 (+3%)
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $200 $204 +$4 (+2%)
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 87¢ 86¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? No 86¢ 84¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 77¢ 74¢ $200 $194 −$6 (-3%)
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? No 79¢ 74¢ $200 $187 −$13 (-6%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 90¢ 98¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 77¢ 81¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 82¢ 85¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 97¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 51¢ 52¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027? No 95¢ 94¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31? No 94¢ 94¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on June 20? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $101 +$6 +6%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $7 +$6 +78%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $7 $0 +1%
Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by September 30? Jun 20 $3 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 7h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 8h
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $107 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 12h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 99¢ $7 13h
Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by September 30? SELL No 64¢ $3 14h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $20 14h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $50 16h
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY No 85¢ $101 32h
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 38h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 90¢ $100 39h
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 78¢ $101 41h
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $101 41h
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 77¢ $101 41h
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $200 41h
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $201 41h
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $201 41h
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $201 41h
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 87¢ $101 41h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $36 41h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $100 42h
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY No 87¢ $101 42h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 42h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $100 42h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $100 46h
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election BUY Yes 84¢ $101 47h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? BUY Yes 8¢ $104 47h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 47h
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $100 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,929.52 · official $4,928.90 (match) · 61 history records