Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:49:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D6 0xd680…455e crypto 1045 markets active 2h ago coverage 89d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 88d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$494 (-5%) realized −$494 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate72%753W / 292L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day30.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$406
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 297 -0.1% -9.6% 92% 2% -9.8%
≤30d 356 -0.9% -10.4% 88% 2% -10.4%
≤90d 1045 -4.9% -14.0% 72% 9% -12.4%
all 1045 -4.9% -14.0% 72% 9% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 9% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 4% -20.8%
15% -29.7% 2% -28.4%
20% -36.6% 1% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$494
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses753 / 292
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1045 / 1045
History coverage89d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day30.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1045 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$4 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$11 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $23 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records