trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 8 | -1.0% | -10.4% | 25% | 0% | -10.4% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -0.9% | -10.3% | 33% | 0% | -10.3% |
| all | 27 | -0.5% | -10.0% | 52% | 0% | -10.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.0% | 0% | -10.3% |
| 10% | -18.6% | 0% | -18.9% |
| 15% | -26.5% | 0% | -26.7% |
| 20% | -33.7% | 0% | -33.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | No | 80¢ | 82¢ | $37 | $38 | +$1 (+2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 27 | $37 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 27 | $37 | $0 | -1% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 26 | $64 | −$1 | -1% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | May 26 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 25 | $35 | +$2 | +6% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | May 25 | $33 | −$2 | -5% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 25 | $34 | −$3 | -8% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | May 24 | $35 | $0 | -1% |
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | May 23 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? | Dec 13 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Jul 01 | $2 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? | Jun 27 | $9 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | Jun 26 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Jun 06 | $7 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? | Jun 04 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Jun 04 | $8 | $0 | +6% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? | May 06 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will XRP reach $2.70 in April? | Apr 22 | $7 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? | Apr 21 | $11 | −$3 | -28% |
| Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | Apr 19 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Anamaria Gavrilă advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Ru | Apr 19 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ipswich Town be relegated? | Apr 18 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? | Apr 17 | $19 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? | Apr 16 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? | Apr 15 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? | Apr 14 | $20 | $0 | -1% |