Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:57:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D6 0xd681…7c53 sports 94 markets active 0h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$644 (-4%) realized −$645 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate67%62W / 31L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$183per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$596
other 9% +$13
politics 1% −$48
crypto 1% −$37
world 0% +$11
tech 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +5.1% -4.9% 100% 0% -5.0%
≤30d 6 +5.1% -4.9% 100% 0% -5.0%
≤90d 82 -10.6% -19.1% 72% 16% -8.9%
all 93 -12.0% -20.4% 67% 17% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 17% -9.1%
10% -28.0% 13% -17.8%
15% -34.9% 12% -25.7%
20% -41.3% 4% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -20% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$53 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$645
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses62 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)93 / 94
History coverage93d
Avg bet$183
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Boston Red Sox 88¢ 90¢ $37 $38 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Caroline Werner vs Alina Charaeva Jun 24 $37 +$1 +3%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Iatcenko vs Zhuoxuan Bai Jun 24 $34 +$2 +7%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera Jun 24 $33 +$1 +4%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Jeline Vandromme Jun 24 $31 +$2 +5%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Jil Teichmann Jun 24 $29 +$3 +10%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 24 $28 $0 +1%
Hamburg European Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli May 18 $320 −$287 -90%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Daria Kasatkina vs Liudmila Samsonova May 18 $307 +$12 +4%
Geneva Open: Sebastian Baez vs Alex Michelsen May 18 $278 +$30 +11%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Atlanta Dream May 17 $407 −$130 -32%
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 17 $399 +$8 +2%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $395 +$4 +1%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $380 +$15 +4%
Valencia: Adolfo Vallejo vs Jaume Munar May 16 $171 −$141 -82%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 16 $25 −$16 -62%
Will Casa Pia AC vs. Rio Ave FC end in a draw? May 16 $160 +$10 +6%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina May 16 $146 +$14 +10%
Will Al Okhdood SC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $116 +$12 +10%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $133 +$2 +2%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $130 +$2 +2%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox May 15 $126 +$4 +3%
Cordoba: Franco Roncadelli vs Nicolas Kicker May 14 $712 −$581 -82%
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 14 $695 +$18 +3%
Bordeaux: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Quentin Halys May 14 $721 −$27 -4%
Oeiras 4: Benjamin Hassan vs Hugo Dellien May 14 $678 +$44 +6%
Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins May 14 $661 +$17 +3%
Valencia: Damir Dzumhur vs Alejo Sanchez Quilez May 13 $554 +$47 +8%
Parma: Lucia Bronzetti vs Camila Osorio May 13 $506 +$48 +10%
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles May 13 $466 +$39 +8%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Mirra Andreeva May 12 $421 +$45 +11%
Oeiras 4: Benjamin Hassan vs Nicolas Mejia May 12 $407 +$13 +3%
Paris: Shuai Zhang vs Himeno Sakatsume May 12 $400 +$7 +2%
Tunis: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Harold Mayot May 12 $384 +$16 +4%
Valencia: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Nicolas Alvarez Varona May 12 $369 +$15 +4%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 12 $342 +$29 +8%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? May 11 $328 +$13 +4%
KHL: Lokomotiv Yaroslavl vs. Ak Bars Kazan May 11 $322 +$6 +2%
T20 Hong Kong Tri-Series, Women: Hong Kong, China vs Malaysia May 11 $309 +$12 +4%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Los Angeles Sparks May 11 $297 +$12 +4%
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 10 $281 +$17 +6%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $269 +$11 +4%
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 10 $264 +$5 +2%
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 09 $261 +$3 +1%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Naomi Osaka vs Eva Lys May 08 $255 +$6 +2%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Anastasia Potapova vs Karolina Muchova May 08 $252 +$3 +1%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Caty McNally vs Iga Swiatek May 08 $247 +$5 +2%
Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 08 $241 +$6 +2%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Belinda Bencic vs Bianca Andreescu May 07 $471 +$4 +1%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Tomas Machac May 07 $208 +$20 +10%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Tatjana Maria vs Sorana Cirstea May 07 $409 +$8 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Boston Red Sox 88¢ $37 17m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Caroline Werner vs Alina Charaeva SELL Alina Charaeva 100¢ $38 38m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Caroline Werner vs Alina Charaeva BUY Alina Charaeva 97¢ $37 56m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Iatcenko vs Zhuoxuan Bai SELL Polina Iatcenko 100¢ $37 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Iatcenko vs Zhuoxuan Bai BUY Polina Iatcenko 93¢ $34 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera SELL Marina Bassols Ribera 100¢ $34 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera BUY Marina Bassols Ribera 96¢ $33 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Jeline Vandromme SELL Jeline Vandromme 100¢ $33 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Jeline Vandromme BUY Jeline Vandromme 95¢ $31 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Jil Teichmann SELL Bianca Andreescu 100¢ $31 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Jil Teichmann BUY Bianca Andreescu 91¢ $29 2h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins SELL Miami Marlins 100¢ $28 2h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 99¢ $28 2h
Hamburg European Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli SELL Kamil Majchrzak $29 37d
Hamburg European Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli BUY Kamil Majchrzak 75¢ $320 37d
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Daria Kasatkina vs Liudmila Samsonova SELL Daria Kasatkina 100¢ $319 37d
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Daria Kasatkina vs Liudmila Samsonova BUY Daria Kasatkina 96¢ $307 37d
Geneva Open: Sebastian Baez vs Alex Michelsen SELL Alex Michelsen 100¢ $308 37d
Geneva Open: Sebastian Baez vs Alex Michelsen BUY Alex Michelsen 90¢ $278 37d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Atlanta Dream SELL Las Vegas Aces 68¢ $278 38d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Atlanta Dream BUY Las Vegas Aces 98¢ $407 38d
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Tampa Bay Rays 100¢ $407 38d
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 98¢ $399 38d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $400 38d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 99¢ $395 38d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Delhi Capitals 100¢ $395 38d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Delhi Capitals 96¢ $380 38d
Valencia: Adolfo Vallejo vs Jaume Munar SELL Jaume Munar 15¢ $30 39d
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the SELL Yes 23¢ $10 39d
Valencia: Adolfo Vallejo vs Jaume Munar BUY Jaume Munar 83¢ $171 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.05 · official $38.05 (match) · 210 history records