Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:26:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D6 0xd681…d9df crypto 1060 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 119d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$174 (-0%) realized −$185 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate77%819W / 247L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day20.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$215now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$224
7 days−$293
14 days−$261
30 days−$341
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$432
weather 15% −$143
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -14.8% -23.0% 74% 58% -17.0%
≤30d 324 -3.1% -12.3% 83% 50% -11.4%
≤90d 568 -2.8% -12.1% 84% 48% -11.5%
all 1066 -2.5% -11.8% 77% 57% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 57% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 29% -20.0%
15% -27.9% 15% -27.7%
20% -35.0% 7% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$30 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$215
Realized−$185
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses819 / 247
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1066 / 1060
History coverage119d ⚠
Avg bet$34
Trades / day20.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1066 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? No 86¢ 100¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 19? No 84¢ 90¢ $48 $51 +$3 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $35 −$35 -101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$21 -126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $32 −$42 -131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$44 -525%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$14 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$22 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $17 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 +$7 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 +$7 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $33 +$5 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $49 +$7 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $18 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$7 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$7 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? Jun 16 $14 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $49 +$7 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$8 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$8 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? Jun 15 $50 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $46 +$6 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$7 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? Jun 14 $39 −$39 -99%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 14? Jun 14 $49 +$5 +10%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 14? Jun 14 $49 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$7 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $39 +$5 +12%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$1 +10%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$5 +10%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$1 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 15? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$7 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$8 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $25 +$3 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$7 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$7 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $51 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $51 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $50 8h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 84¢ $49 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $48 18h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 86¢ $50 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 47h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 86¢ $28 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 86¢ $17 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 86¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 87¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 87¢ $36 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 87¢ $14 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 90¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 88¢ $9 3d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 87¢ $36 3d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 88¢ $13 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 88¢ $38 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 87¢ $19 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 86¢ $14 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 88¢ $12 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 85¢ $50 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 86¢ $16 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 91¢ $5 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 91¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 87¢ $27 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 91¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $214.94 · official $214.71 (match) · 3500 history records