Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:26:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D6 0xd68c…098e crypto 27 markets active 4d ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$50 (+0%) realized +$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate89%24W / 3L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$1,828per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$7
14 days+$10
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$47
other 9% +$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 10 +0.1% -9.4% 90% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 13 +0.1% -9.4% 92% 0% -9.4%
all 27 +0.1% -9.4% 89% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$3,196) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×4.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×32.78 per $1 lost it wins $32.78
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses24 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage220d
Avg bet$1,828
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $3,227 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $248 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $2,517 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $458 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $3,159 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $62 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 14 $3,216 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 01 $6,420 +$12 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 29? May 29 $3,215 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 27? May 27 $3,211 +$3 +0%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? May 20 $3,199 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 18 $3,196 +$3 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? May 18 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November? Mar 19 $36 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $160 on November 24? Nov 25 $1,437 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on November 23? Nov 24 $1,436 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.40 and $2.50 on November 21? Nov 22 $1,434 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 20? Nov 21 $1,433 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 19? Nov 20 $1,431 +$1 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $1,432 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $170 on November 17? Nov 17 $1,432 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on November 16? Nov 17 $1,430 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104,000 and $106,000 on November Nov 16 $1,428 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 14? Nov 15 $1,426 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 13? Nov 14 $1,426 +$1 +0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 13 $84 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on November 12? Nov 13 $1,341 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $3,227 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $458 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $248 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,517 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $62 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $3,152 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $7 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 98¢ $3,216 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 98¢ $324 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 98¢ $2,667 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 98¢ $225 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $3,218 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $3,215 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,211 28d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $3,211 28d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $790 33d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $995 34d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $1,417 34d
Will Putin visit China by May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,199 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $480 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $2,716 36d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $35 96d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November? BUY No 99¢ $36 210d
Will the price of Solana be above $160 on November 24? BUY No 100¢ $1,437 211d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on November 23? BUY No 100¢ $1,436 213d
Will the price of XRP be between $2.40 and $2.50 on November 21? BUY No 100¢ $1,434 214d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 20? BUY No 100¢ $1,433 215d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 19? BUY No 100¢ $1,431 216d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,431 216d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,432 218d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 64 history records