Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:14:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D6 0xd68c…d911 crypto 309 markets active 12d ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$30 (+1%) realized +$25 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%293W / 7L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day27.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$205now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$10
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$33
politics 4% +$6
finance 2% −$19
other 1% +$1
sports 1% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 300 +0.7% -8.9% 98% 1% -9.1%
≤90d 300 +0.7% -8.9% 98% 1% -9.1%
all 300 +0.7% -8.9% 98% 1% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 1% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.8%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$15 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$205
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses293 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)300 / 309
History coverage12d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day27.9
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 300 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 93¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%? No 95¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 96¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be greater than 85%? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 12%+? No 98¢ 100¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+2%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 98¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +4%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
XRP Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $7 12d
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $8 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 12d
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 12d
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 12d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $12 12d
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 12d
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 12d
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 12d
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 96¢ $19 12d
XRP Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 96¢ $19 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 98¢ $20 12d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 98¢ $20 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $20 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 12d
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 12d
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 12d
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 12d
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $6 12d
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $8 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $205.40 · official $205.40 (match) · 613 history records