Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:23:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D6
0xd68d…56a5
other · 9 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
+$10 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5 · open +$15
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$64
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage149d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 1 History 8 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$26
14 days+$26
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Over 77¢ 100¢ $50 $64 +$15 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $27 +$28 +104%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $25 +$20 +77%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? May 06 $40 −$19 -47%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Jan 22 $15 +$26 +170%
Will Senegal win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025? Jan 19 $26 −$26 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Jan 16 $29 −$29 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 14 $53 +$18 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 34% +$14
sports 26% +$35
other 26% −$20
politics 14% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $50 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $54 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $45 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $25 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $27 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $22 26h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $21 37d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 12¢ $40 141d
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL No 40¢ $41 141d
Will Senegal win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025? BUY No 64¢ $26 146d
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 148d
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $28 149d
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $15 149d
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $71 149d
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $53 149d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +27.1% +15.0% 67% 67% +21.8%
≤30d 3 +27.1% +15.0% 67% 67% +21.8%
≤90d 4 +8.5% -1.8% 50% 50% -4.2%
all 8 +4.7% -5.3% 50% 50% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 50% -11.5%
10% -14.4% 50% -20.0%
15% -22.6% 38% -27.7%
20% -30.2% 38% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.49 · official $64.49 (match) · 18 history records