Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:37:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd68d…34d6 crypto 1786 markets active 5d ago coverage 61d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 60d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$612 (+6%) realized +$612 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate68%1210W / 577L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day32.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$31
14 days−$32
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$180
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -48.1% -53.1% 33% 33% -52.2%
≤30d 494 -1.3% -10.7% 64% 63% -10.2%
≤90d 1787 -1.3% -10.7% 68% 67% -11.1%
all 1787 -1.3% -10.7% 68% 67% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 67% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 66% -19.6%
15% -27.0% 46% -27.4%
20% -34.2% 24% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$612
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses1210 / 577
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1787 / 1786
History coverage61d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day32.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1787 Trades
no open positions (333 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 07 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 07 $4 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 07 $4 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 07 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 07 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$2 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $4 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records