Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:51:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D6 0xd68d…959a sports 91 markets active 2h ago coverage 276d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$202 (+5%) realized +$200 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%42W / 43L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$163
14 days+$406
30 days+$406
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$46
other 47% +$264
crypto 3% +$58
world 1% −$6
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +31.3% +18.8% 56% 56% +22.0%
≤30d 51 +0.6% -9.0% 49% 49% +5.9%
≤90d 77 +1.2% -8.5% 49% 45% -1.3%
all 85 +1.6% -8.0% 49% 46% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 46% -1.8%
10% -16.8% 45% -11.2%
15% -24.9% 41% -19.8%
20% -32.2% 36% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$25 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

276d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized+$200
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses42 / 43
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)85 / 91
History coverage276d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $68 $70 +$2 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $15 +$11 +70%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $5 +$3 +67%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $91 +$69 +76%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $101 +$89 +88%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 −$9 -9%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 22 $59 −$26 -45%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 22 $30 −$2 -5%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $23 −$23 -99%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $26 +$27 +101%
New Zealand to score first vs. Egypt? Jun 22 $20 +$51 +250%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $19 +$20 +105%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 22 $7 +$8 +119%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$28 +140%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $40 +$27 +67%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $33 −$3 -9%
Curaçao to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 21 $19 −$6 -32%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 +$52 +130%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $11 −$10 -98%
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals Jun 20 $23 −$23 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Panama to score first vs. Ghana? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $23 −$23 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 20 $55 −$29 -52%
Jets vs. Blues Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $69 −$69 -100%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 20 $81 −$81 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 20 $164 −$164 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $107 +$75 +70%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 +$58 +58%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 19 $122 +$118 +96%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Jun 19 $246 +$71 +29%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $280 +$86 +31%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 $0 -6%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $199 +$76 +38%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $27 +$26 +97%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $43 +$24 +56%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $12 +$6 +48%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $9 +$11 +119%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 +$13 +50%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $14 +$15 +109%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $76 +$49 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $69 2h
Jonathan David: 1+ goals AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY 26¢ $50 4d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $31 4d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score AND Panama vs. Croatia: Bot BUY 23¢ $34 4d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $15 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will B BUY 27¢ $19 5d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Scor BUY 21¢ $25 5d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 88¢ $25 5d
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $5 5d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $15 5d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $161 5d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 98¢ $190 5d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $91 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 36¢ $0 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 36¢ $92 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 38¢ $101 5d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $31 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins SELL Miami Marlins 30¢ $31 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 55¢ $59 5d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $70 5d
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals SELL Yes 45¢ $29 5d
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $30 5d
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $23 5d
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 92¢ $53 5d
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $26 5d
New Zealand to score first vs. Egypt? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 6d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $19 6d
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $7 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 41¢ $20 6d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $38 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.56 · official $69.56 (match) · 201 history records