Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:52:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D6
0xd697…def2
other · 75 markets active 1h ago
5.5score
−$1,325 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,331 · open +$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$127
Realized−$1,331
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses36 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)72 / 75
History coverage1038d
Avg bet$246
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 3 History 72 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$470
7 days+$370
14 days+$370
30 days+$499
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 61¢ 78¢ $50 $64 +$14 (+29%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 60¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 4¢ $20 $7 −$12 (-62%)
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Spurs 43¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Yes 64¢ 0¢ $128 $0 −$128 (-100%)
Pump.fun market cap (FDV) $6-8B one day after launch? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Top Esports 16¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes 68¢ 0¢ $136 $0 −$136 (-100%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $153 $0 −$153 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Top Esports 40¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 62¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Pump.fun >$8B market cap (FDV) one day after launch? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $350 $0 −$350 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $51 +$34 +67%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 +$74 +146%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $51 +$60 +119%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$48 +94%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $26 +$64 +250%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 +$36 +70%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $10 −$7 -73%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $112 +$196 +175%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $92 +$80 +87%
Will Trump say "Mao" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $451 +$49 +11%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $156 −$153 -98%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $138 −$136 -99%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? Apr 17 $321 +$452 +141%
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 05 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Jan 06 $200 +$117 +59%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Jan 06 $714 +$554 +78%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Dec 23 $128 −$128 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Dec 23 $100 −$100 -100%
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $100 −$89 -89%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Nov 02 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Nov 02 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Pump.fun launch a token by September 30? Sep 23 $70 +$30 +43%
Pump.fun market cap (FDV) $4-6B one day after launch? Sep 23 $57 +$93 +162%
Will Pump.fun launch a token by July 31? Sep 23 $1,141 +$484 +42%
Pump.fun >$8B market cap (FDV) one day after launch? Jul 14 $350 −$350 -100%
Pump.fun market cap (FDV) $6-8B one day after launch? Jul 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Trump say "Putin" during the debate? Jul 09 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the Blast bridge be exploited by end of February? Jul 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Will ETH hit $3,500 by May 31? Jul 09 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Jul 09 $169 −$169 -100%
Will the median gas price per blob be between 0.001 and 0.01 ETH one m Jul 09 $111 −$111 -100%
Pump.fun airdrop in Q1 2025? Jul 09 $235 −$235 -100%
Will Trump say "MAGA" during the debate? Jul 09 $467 −$460 -99%
Fed rate cut by March 20? Jul 09 $833 −$331 -40%
Will Trump say "Jew" during the debate? Jul 09 $220 −$220 -100%
Ethereum ETF approved by May 31? Jul 09 $192 −$192 -100%
Will Trump say 'Greenland' during the 2025 State of the Union? Jul 09 $656 −$656 -100%
Will the median gas price per blob be between 0.01 and 0.1 ETH one mon Jul 09 $112 −$112 -100%
Did Barron Trump launch $DJT? Jul 09 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Anish Agnihotri last the longest-lasting of the listed Cryptotheg Jul 09 $756 −$756 -100%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Jul 09 $445 −$445 -100%
Will Trump say 'crypto' or 'Bitcoin' during the 2025 State of the Unio Mar 05 $75 +$64 +84%
Will the HBO documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi? Oct 08 $517 +$421 +82%
Will the HBO documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi? Oct 07 $62 −$14 -22%
Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" during the debate? Oct 05 $197 +$63 +32%
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Jul 19 $300 +$115 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 39% +$1,747
world 18% −$119
crypto 18% −$962
politics 16% −$1,564
sports 5% −$54
economics 5% −$331
tech 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 33m
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 61¢ $51 49m
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 93¢ $99 18h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $51 18h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 18h
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $51 18h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $51 18h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 24h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 24h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $51 24h
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 1 Czechia? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 40h
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 1 Czechia? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 40h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 40h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 80¢ $308 40h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 40h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $102 41h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 43¢ $102 2d
Will Trump say "Mao" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 90¢ $65 30d
Will Trump say "Mao" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 90¢ $45 30d
Will Trump say "Mao" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 90¢ $90 30d
Will Trump say "Mao" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 90¢ $16 30d
Will Trump say "Mao" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 90¢ $45 30d
Will Trump say "Mao" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 90¢ $9 30d
Will Trump say "Mao" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 90¢ $181 30d
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 53¢ $156 30d
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 53¢ $80 30d
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 50¢ $12 30d
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 68¢ $138 30d
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +49.8% +35.6% 64% 64% +52.8%
≤30d 13 +49.7% +35.5% 69% 69% +32.3%
≤90d 17 +28.7% +16.4% 59% 59% +25.9%
all 72 -9.7% -18.3% 50% 46% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 46% -16.1%
10% -26.1% 42% -24.1%
15% -33.3% 35% -31.5%
20% -39.8% 28% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.84 · official $126.84 (match) · 242 history records